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Wyoming Labor Force Trends

March 2024 | Volume 61, No. 3


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New Short-Term Projections Show Continued Job Growth

Article | Tables and Figures


by: Laura Yetter, Senior Economist

 

The latest short-term industry and occupational employment projections show continued growth across all industries and many occupations over the next two years. These projections were completed during a period of economic growth, as Wyoming experienced over-the-year job growth for 10 consecutive quarters as of third quarter 2023. The full projections are available at https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/projections.htm

Wyoming is projected to gain more than 8,000 jobs (an increase of 2.9%) from second quarter 2023 (2023Q2) to second quarter 2025 (2025Q2), according to the most recent short-term industry and occupational employment projections from the Research & Planning (R&P) section of the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services.

Projections are based on historical trends of how employment levels respond to market conditions. While Wyoming has experienced two periods of economic downturn within the last 10 years, the projections discussed in this article were prepared during a period of increased employment and wage growth for Wyoming from 2020Q3 to 2023Q3 (Bullard, 2024). As noted by Moore (2024), 2023Q3 marked the 10th consecutive quarter of over-the-year job growth in Wyoming. It is important to note that projections cannot account for certain factors, such as extreme weather patterns, large-scale government investments, and economic downturns.

R&P publishes short-term projections annually, and long-term projections every other year. The next set of long-term projections, covering 2022-2032, will be published in July.

This article identifies which industries and occupations are projected to grow over the next two years.

Industry Formation

Industries are classified according to the North American Industry Classification System, (NAICS). The industry projections are developed at the three-digit NAICS subsector level and then summed to the two-digit major industry sectors; a sample of the NAICS structure is presented in Box 1. Some NAICS codes changed in 2022 from the 2017 NAICS codes. This impacted the last 18 months of the base data used in the projections for retail trade and information.

Industry projections at the two-digit sector level are shown in Table 1. The more detailed table with projections for three-digit subsectors is available by clicking here.

The newest short-term industry projections indicate that Wyoming’s total employment will increase from 281,558 in 2023Q2 to 289,646 in 2025Q2, an increase of 8,088 jobs, or 2.9%. All industries are projected to see job growth, with the largest found in health care & social assistance (1,030, or 3.0%), accommodation & food services (934, or 2.7%), professional, scientific, & technical services (876, or 7.8%), and construction (838, or 3.7%).

Employment in mining (including oil & gas), which drives Wyoming’s economic health, is projected to increase from 17,029 in 2023Q2 to 17,323 in 2025Q2 (294, or 1.7%). It is worth noting that at the three-digit subsector level, employment in the mining, except oil & gas subsector is projected to decline by 63 jobs, or 0.8%. In addition, minimal growth is projected the oil & gas extraction subsector (18 jobs, or 0.8%).

Occupational Projections

Staffing patterns from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program were used for occupational projections. These staffing patterns are prepared in partnership with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and are updated twice a year. This survey collects wage and salary information for all full- and part-time Wyoming workers in nonfarm industries, subsequently producing occupational employment estimates by metropolitan, nonmetropolitan area, industry, and ownership (Hauf, 2022). These estimates are then combined with the industry projections in the Projections Suite software program to cross-reference industry and occupational codes by the occupational job projection. Occupations are classified using the Standard Occupational Classification, (SOC) system.

In addition to projected growth openings, occupational projections also include openings due to transfers (persons changing occupations) and exits (persons leaving the workforce; see Table 2). Total openings refers to the sum of growth, transfers, and exits. For most occupations, more openings are due to transfers and exits than actual growth. Occupational projections also include the typical requirements to enter the occupation: education, experience, and training.

Table 2 shows that in addition to 8,516 openings due to growth, Wyoming also is projected to have 29,346 openings due to exits and 36,953 due to transfers. Overall, Wyoming is projected to have 74,815 total openings over the next two years. The occupation with the most projected openings due to growth is heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers with 419. In addition, this occupation also is projected to have 626 openings due to exits and 810 openings due to transfers, for a total of 1,855 projected openings.

As mentioned, occupational projections also include the level of education typically required to enter a given occupation. As shown in Figure 1, the vast majority of total openings (72.4%) are in occupations requiring a high school diploma or less. Nearly one in 10 total openings (9.5%) are in occupations requiring a postsecondary non-degree award or some college, no degree. Occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree account for 14.0% of total openings. The remaining educational requirements are associate’s degree (1.9%), master’s degree (1.1%), and doctoral or professional degree (1.1%).

The top five occupations by total projected openings for each educational requirement are presented in Table 3.

In occupations with no formal educational credential, the greatest total openings are projected for fast food & counter workers (3,027), retail salespersons (2,780), and cashiers (2,528). For those occupations that require a high school diploma or equivalent, the occupations with the greatest projected openings include office clerks, general (1,867), stockers & order filers (1,693), and home health & personal care aides (1,173).

Among occupations requiring a postsecondary non-degree award (such as a certificate) or some college, no degree, the greatest total openings are projected for heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers (1,855), bookkeeping, accounting, & auditing clerks (1,028), and teaching assistants, except postsecondary (960).

For occupations requiring an associate’s degree, preschool teachers, except special education had the greatest number of total openings with 238, followed by forest & conservation technicians (145) and paralegals & legal assistants (118).

Occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree make up the largest portion among jobs requiring some postsecondary education. General & operations managers has the greatest number of projected total openings (1,547), followed by registered nurses (716) and substitute teachers, short-term (614).

Many of the top occupations requiring a master’s degree were related to health care and education. These include education, guidance, & career counselors & advisors (111), nurse practitioners (86), and librarians & media collections specialists (67).

Finally, among occupations requiring a doctoral or professional degree, the greatest projected openings were lawyers (188), postsecondary teachers, all other (74), and physical therapists (66).

Wyoming short-term industry and occupational projections for 2023-2025 are available online at https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/projections/2024/WY_ST_Projections_2023-2025.htm.

References

Bullard, D. (2024, February 2). Wyoming employment and payroll: construction sector leads job growth in third quarter 2023. Retrieved January 14, 2024, from https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/qcewnews.htm

Hauf, D. (2022, March). Occupations with the highest and lowest wages for May 2020. Wyoming Labor Force Trends, 59(3). Research & Planning, WY DWS. Retrieved February 28, 2024, from https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/trends/2022_03.pdf

Moore, M. (2024, January). 2023Q2 quarterly update: Identifying areas of job growth by county and industry. Wyoming Labor Force Trends, 61(1). Research & Planning, WY DWS. Retrieved March 1, 2024, from https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/trends/0124/a1.htm