Wyoming Short-Term Industry and Occupational Employment Projections, 2024-2026
Click here to download Microsoft Excel file.
Click here to download the full publication (PDF).
New Short-Term Projections Show Continued Job
Growth
by: Laura Yetter, Senior Economist
Wyoming is projected to gain approximately 8,000 new jobs from second quarter 2024 (2024Q2) to second quarter 2026 (2026Q2) according to the newest short-term industry and occupational projections from the Research & Planning (R&P) section of the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services. This is a 2.8% increase in the number of jobs in Wyoming.
Projections are based on historical trends of how employment levels respond to market conditions. Wyoming experienced three periods of economic downturn over the last 15 years: 2009Q1 to 2010Q1, 2015Q2 to 2016Q4, and 2020Q2 to 2021Q1 (see Figure 2 and Figure 3). An economic downturn is defined by R&P as a period of at least two consecutive quarters of over-the-year decrease in average monthly employment and total wages based on data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
The projections discussed in this article were prepared during a period of increased employment and wage growth for Wyoming from 2020Q3 to 2024Q2. As noted by Moore (in press), 2024Q3 marked the 14th consecutive quarter of over-the-year job growth in Wyoming. In 2022 and 2023, Wyoming saw record lows in unemployment claims (Halama, 2024), with nearly twice as many job openings as unemployed individuals (Bullard, 2023).
The short-term projections discussed in this article show that the industries with the greatest projected growth are accommodation & food services, construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. However, it is worth noting that Wyoming's mining sector — which powers the state's economy — is projected to lose 144 jobs (-0.9%).
Industry Projections
Industries are classified according to the North American Industry Classification System, (NAICS; see Box 1). The industry projections are developed at the three-digit NAICS subsector level and then summed to the two-digit major industries shown in Table 1. The full industry projections table with three-digit NAICS subsectors can be found in Table 6.
Short-term industry projections indicate that Wyoming’s employment is expected to increase by 2.8%, or 7,889 jobs. Accommodation & food services is projected to see the greatest job growth, adding 1,551 jobs (4.6%). This is followed by construction (1,412, or 6.0%), health care & social assistance (1,160, or 3.4%), and retail trade (800, or 2.7%).
While nearly all industries are projected to add jobs over the next two years, Wyoming's mining sector is projected to lose 144 jobs (-0.9%). The job losses in mining are notable because this industry drives Wyoming's economy. Mining had three consecutive quarters of over-the-year job losses from 2024Q1 to 2024Q3, though some of those job losses were due to non-economic code changes (Moore, 2024).
Occupational Projections
Occupations are classified using the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. This publication includes occupational projection tables for each two-digit major group (see Tables 7-29) and by educational requirement (see Tables 30-36).
The newest short-term occupational projections show Wyoming employment increasing by 8,197 jobs. This is slightly higher than the projected growth at the industry level, due to differences in the methodology. One key difference is that the industry projections are limited to wage and salary jobs, while the occupational projections also include estimates of the number of self-employed. The percent change of 2.8% is the same for both industry and occupational projections.
In addition to growth or decline, short-term occupational projections also take into consideration anticipated openings due to workers exiting the workforce (exits) or changing occupations (transfers) from 2024Q2 to 2026Q2. Total openings are the sum of projected growth or decline in the number of jobs in a given occupation, plus the number of exits and transfers.
Projected growth or decline is a small component of total openings. In addition to approximately 8,000 job openings due to growth, Wyoming is projected to have 27,211 openings due to exits and 39,013 openings due to transfers, or 74,421 total openings.
Table 2 shows the 10 occupations with the greatest number of openings due to growth. The greatest growth is projected for construction laborers (300, or 7.0%), followed by general & operations managers (260, or 3.6%), retail salespersons (260, or 3.6%), and stockers & order fillers with (241, or 5.0%). Of the 10 occupations with the greatest number of projected growth openings, only two require more than a high school diploma: general & operations managers (bachelor's degree) and heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers (post-secondary non-degree award).
Table 3 shows the 10 occupations with the greatest number of total projected openings — the sum of exits, transfers, and growth. Many of these occupations are the same as those presented in Table 2, such as fast food & counter workers (3,176 total openings), retail salespersons (2,942), cashiers (2,361), and waiters & waitresses (1,831).
As shown in Table 4 and Figure 1, nearly three in every four (72.5%) of the 74,421 total projected openings require a high school diploma or less. Occupations requiring a bachelor's degree account for 14.0% of the total projected openings, followed by 9.2% that require a post-secondary non-degree award, or some college, no degree.
Table 5 shows the top five occupations by total projected openings for each type of educational requirement. Occupations with no formal educational requirement make up approximately one in three (33.9%) total job openings. The occupations with the greatest projected openings in this group include fast food & counter workers (3,176), retail salespersons (2,942), cashiers (2,361), and waiters & waitresses (1,831).
Occupations requiring a high school diploma or equivalent account for the largest proportion of total openings (38.6%). The greatest projected openings can be seen in occupations such as stockers & order fillers (1,804); office clerks, general (1,785), and home health & personal care aides (1,194).
Occupations requiring a post-secondary non-degree award or some college, no degree, make up approximately one in 10 (9.2%) total projected openings. Of the 6,866 projected openings in this group, more than one in five (1,542) are heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers. Other occupations requiring a post-secondary certificate or some college that have relatively large numbers of total projected openings include teaching assistants, except post-secondary (980); bookkeeping, accounting, & auditing clerks (918); and nursing assistants (826).
The occupations requiring an associate's degree account for 1.7% of total projected openings. The occupations with the greatest number of projected openings are preschool teachers, except special education (185), forest & conservation technicians (138), and paralegals & legal assistants (92).
Occupations requiring a bachelor's degree make up the greatest proportion of all occupations that require some post-secondary education, and account for 14.0% of all projected openings. General & operations managers show the greatest number of projected openings (1,438), followed by registered nurses (727) and short-term substitute teachers (650).
Occupations requiring a master's degree account for 1.5% of total projected openings. The occupations with the greatest projected openings are substance abuse, behavioral disorder, & mental health counselors (204); educational, guidance, school, & vocational counselors (131); librarians & media collections specialists (97); and nurse practitioners (94).
Finally, occupations requiring a doctoral or professional degree represent the fewest projected openings (807) of all educational groups and make up 1.1% of all projected openings. Lawyers have the greatest number of projected openings (114), followed by postsecondary teachers, all other (97); physical therapists (56); and pharmacists (53).
Conclusion
Based on recent historical trends, Wyoming is projected to add approximately 8,000 new jobs from 2024 to 2026, an increase of 2.8%. Current and historical industry and occupational projections for Wyoming are available online at https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/projections.htm.
References
Bullard, D. (2023, June). Chapter 6: Wyoming job openings fall modestly from 2021 record high. 2023 Wyoming Workforce Annual Report. Retrieved February 24, 2025, from https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/annual-report/2023/2023_Annual_Report.pdf#page=35
Halama, M. (2024, June). Chapter 5: Wyoming UI claims, benefits paid remain low in 2023. 2024 Wyoming Workforce Annual Report. Retrieved February 24, 2025, from https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/annual-report/2024/2024_Annual_Report.pdf#page=30
Moore, M. (2024, October). 2024Q1 quarterly update: Wyoming jobs, total wages grow for 12th consecutive quarter. Wyoming Labor Force Trends, 61(10). Research & Planning, WY DWS. Retrieved February 24, 2025, from https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/trends/1024/a1.htm
Moore, M. (In press). 2024Q3 quarterly update: Wyoming Sees 3-plus years of over-the-year job gains. Wyoming Labor Force Trends, 63(4). Research & Planning, WY DWS.
Hire Wyo
