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Wyoming Department of Workforce Services

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"Labor Market Information (LMI) is an applied science; it is the systematic collection and analysis of data which describes and predicts the relationship between labor demand and supply." The States' Labor Market Information Review, ICESA, 1995, p. 7.

2022 Wyoming Workforce Annual Report

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Wyoming Labor Force Trends

August 2022 | Volume 59, No. 8


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Long-Term Industry and Occupational Projections, 2020-2030

Article | Tables and Figures


Abstract: Wyoming is projected to add more than 40,000 new jobs over the next 10 years, according to the newest long-term industry and occupational employment projections from the Research & Planning (R&P) section of the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services. This marks an increase of 15.0% from 2020 to 2030. On average, Wyoming is projected to add more than 4,000 jobs each year from 2020 to 2030.

by: Laura Yetter, Senior Economist

R&P publishes long-term industry and occupational employment projections for Wyoming every year. Long-term projections of Wyoming’s sub-state regions are published during the odd years, while the entire state projections are published during even years.

Projections are based on historic trends of how employment levels respond to market conditions such as prices of oil & natural gas, building permits, mortgage rates, and coal production. Projections cannot account for certain factors, such as extreme weather patterns, large-scale government investments, and economic downturns. For example, projections run prior to 2020 could not have accounted for the COVID-19 pandemic.
For the most current projections, R&P used annual data from 2000 to 2020, with greater weight given to more recent years in the projection analysis. The most recent year of these projections given the heaviest weight was 2020, the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The complete 2020-2030 long-term projections are available at https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/projections/2022/WY_LT_Projections_2020-2030.htm, along with prior projections, articles, and more.

Industries are defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The long-term industry projections for 2020-2030 were prepared at the NAICS three-digit subsector level, and the estimates were then rolled up to the two-digit sector level. Wyoming’s employment is projected to grow from 262,630 jobs in 2020 to 303,044 in 2030, an increase of 40,414 jobs, or 15.4%.

As an example, projections for Wyoming’s mining sector were developed for the three subsectors: oil & gas extraction (NAICS 211), mining, except oil & gas (NAICS 212), and support activities for mining (NAICS 213). These estimates then were rolled up to produce projections for the sector of mining, including oil & gas (NAICS 21). Overall, mining is projected to grow from 16,312 in 2020 to 17,870 in 2030 (1,558 jobs, or 9.6%). Employment is projected to increase by 36.6% for the support activities for mining subsector and decline in the other two subsectors.

At the two-digit sector level, most industries are projected to experience substantial job growth from 2020 to 2030 (see Table 1). The greatest projected growth (8,801 jobs, or 30.3%) is found in accommodation & food services (NAICS 72). This large increase is due to the recovery from the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and continued projected growth. Other industries with substantial projected growth include construction (5,555, or 26.2%), health care & social assistance (5,334, or 16.1%), professional, scientific, & technical services (3,120, or 33.2%), and retail trade (3,012, or 10.5%). Wyoming’s utilities sector is the only private industry projected to see a decrease in jobs from 2020 to 2030 (-174, or -7.2%).

Employment in government is projected to increase from 30,109 to 30,825 (716, or 2.4%). Local government (excluding education & hospitals) is projected to add 815 jobs (5.6%), while federal government is projected to add 148 (2.2%). Employment in state government (excluding education & hospitals) is projected to decrease by 247 (-2.8%).

Staffing patterns from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program were used for occupational projections. These staffing patterns are prepared in partnership with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and are updated twice a year. This survey collects wage and salary information for all full- and part-time Wyoming workers in nonfarm industries, subsequently producing occupational employment estimates by metropolitan, non-metropolitan area, industry, and ownership (Hauf, 2022). These estimates are then combined with the industry projections in the Projections Suite software program to cross-reference industry and occupational codes by the occupational job projection.

In addition to projected growth openings, occupational projections also include openings due to transfers (persons changing jobs) and exits (persons leaving the workforce; see Table 2). Total openings refers to the sum of growth, transfers, and exits (BLS, 2021). Annual growth openings were calculated by dividing the projected growth by 10. Occupational projections also include the typical requirements to enter the occupation: education, experience, and training.

Occupations are assigned using the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. Occupational projections are prepared at the major group (two-digit), minor group (three-digit), and detailed occupation (six-digit) levels. For example, Box 1 shows long-term projections for building & grounds cleaning & maintenance occupations, which has the major group (two-digit) code of 37-0000. Within this major group are three minor groups (three-digit), one of which is building cleaning & pest control workers (SOC 37-2000). Within that minor group are several detailed occupations, including maids & housekeeping cleaners (SOC 37-2012) and pest control workers (SOC 37-2021).

Over the next 10 years, the greatest job growth is projected to be seen in heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers, with 1,672 new jobs (or 167 per year), an increase of 23.0% (see Table 2). Other occupations with high projected job growth include cooks, restaurant (1,359, or 48.3%), construction laborers (1,314, or 31.9%), and home health & personal care aides (1,273, or 34.0%).

Table 3 shows the 10 occupations with the greatest total projected openings from 2020 to 2030. As previously mentioned, total openings are the sum of growth, exits, and transfers. Many of the top occupations in Table 3 are occupations with substantial growth openings in exits and transfers leading to high turnover rates, including fast food & counter workers (14,431 total openings), retail salespersons (12,795), cashiers (10,959), heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers (10,503), and waiters & waitresses (9,987).

Occupational projections also include the typical education required to enter a specific occupation. As shown in Table 4 and Figure 1, the vast majority of the state’s 373,250 total openings are projected to be in occupations requiring a high school diploma or equivalent (38.9% of all openings) or no formal educational credential (34.3%). In other words, nearly three of every four (73.2%) total job openings will be in occupations that require no education beyond high school. Occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree account for 13.4% of total projected openings, and occupations requiring a postsecondary non-degree award or some college, no degree make up 8.9%.

Table 5 shows the top five occupations with the greatest number of total projected job openings for each educational requirement. Occupations with no formal educational requirement are projected to have 128,001 total openings from 2020 to 2030. The occupations with the greatest number of total openings in this group are fast food & counter workers (14,431), retail salespersons (12,795), and cashiers (10,959).

Occupations requiring a high school diploma or equivalent account for the largest proportion of total openings (38.3%, or more one-third). The greatest projected openings can be seen in occupations such as office clerks, general (9,245), stockers & order filers (8,146), and home health & personal care aides (6,563).

Occupations requiring a post-secondary non-degree award or some college, no degree, make up 8.9% of total projected openings. Of the 33,290 projected openings in this group, approximately one in three (10,503) are heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers. Other occupations requiring a post-secondary certificate or some college that have relatively large numbers of total projected openings include nursing assistants (3,937), bookkeeping, accounting, & auditing clerks (3,747) and teaching assistants, except postsecondary (3,584).

The occupations requiring an associate's degree account for 1.9% of total projected openings. The occupations with the greatest number of projected openings are preschool teachers, except special education (812), forest & conservation technicians (808), and paralegals & legal assistants (782).
Occupations requiring a bachelor's degree make up the greatest proportion of all occupations that require some post-secondary education, and account for 13.4% of all projected openings. General & operations managers show the greatest number of projected openings (4,909), followed by short-term substitute teachers (3,621) registered nurses (3,328), and accountants & auditors (2,327).

Occupations requiring a master's degree and those requiring a doctoral or professional degree represent the smallest proportion of total openings for all educational groups (1.2% and 1.3%, respectively). For those jobs requiring a master’s degree, the greatest total openings are projected for educational, guidance, school, & vocational counselors (716), librarians & media collections specialists (481), nurse practitioners (419), mental health & substance abuse social workers (331).

Among occupations requiring a doctoral or professional degree, the greatest total projected openings are in lawyers (791), postsecondary teachers, all other (398), physical therapists (355), and pharmacists (330).

Conclusion

Wyoming is projected to add nearly 42,000 new jobs from 2020 to 2030. However, job openings due to growth represent just a fraction of the state’s total openings (373,250), which includes openings due to individuals leaving the workforce (exits) or changing jobs (transfers).

Current and historical industry and occupational projections for Wyoming are available online at https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/projections.htm.

References

Hauf, D. (2022, March). Occupations with the highest and lowest wages for May 2020. Wyoming Labor Force Trends, 59(3). Research & Planning, WY DWS. Retrieved June 29, 2022, from https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/trends/2022_03.pdf

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2021, September 8). Employment projections data definitions. Retrieved June 29, 2022, from https://www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/definitions.htm