Short Term Industry Projections:
Mining, Leisure & Hospitality Lead Projected Job Growth for 2017-2019
by: Patrick Manning, Principal Economist
Wyoming is projected to add 7,333 jobs from 2017 to 2019, according to the most recent short-term projections. Job growth is projected to occur in all sectors except information and public administration.
The Research & Planning (R&P) section of the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services conducts short-term employment projections by industry and occupation.
Industry Projections
Industries are classified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The industry projections are developed at the three-digit NAICS subsector level and then summed to the two-digit major industries shown in the table.
The short-term industry projections indicate that Wyoming’s employment is expected to grow by 7,333 jobs (2.7%) from second quarter 2017 (2017Q2) to second quarter 2019 (2019Q2). At the two-digit level, job growth is forecast for all sectors, with exception of information (NAICS 51) and public administration (NAICS 92).
The largest job growth is expected in mining (NAICS 21; 2,410 jobs, or 12.5%) and leisure & hospitality (NAICS 71-72; 1,643, or 4.5%). While leisure & hospitality has been on a steady upward trend for more than 25 years, Wyoming’s mining sector has been volatile, with much of the industry dependent on oil extraction. Employment in mining bottomed out in 2016Q3 with slightly fewer than 18,000 jobs, the lowest level in more than 10 years. Since then, however, mining has seen over-the-month increases in each of the six months prior to the base period used in these projections (2017Q2).
Projections are based on historic trends of how employment levels respond to market conditions. Oil prices are relatively favorable for Wyoming suppliers at this time, and therefore employment levels are expected to continue increasing. The global supply/demand situation could change abruptly.
To put the projected employment of 21,728 into perspective, the highest employment levels in the mining sector were approximately 28,000 in 2011Q4 and 2012Q1 when West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices hovered around $100 per barrel (EIA, 2018).
Health care & social assistance (NAICS 62) is expected to grow modestly by 784 jobs (2.4%). Growth in this sector has been tempered somewhat due to a decrease in Wyoming’s population. This is also the reason that employment in educational services (NAICS 61) is expected to remain practically unchanged.
At the three-digit detailed level, many of the projected increases and decreases are larger than at the two-digit sector level. For example, in the manufacturing sector (NAICS 31-33), which is expected to add 330 jobs overall (3.6%), some subsectors are expected to maintain a constant level of employment, while others are expected to grow faster than average. For example, food manufacturing (NAICS 311) is projected to remain steady with no change, while machinery manufacturing (NAICS 333) is projected to grow by 10.7%.
Occupational Projections
Occupations are classified using the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. Short-term occupational projections show anticipated job growth and openings due to workers exiting the workforce or changing occupations through 2019Q2. Total openings are calculated by projected growth or decline (numeric change) in the number of jobs in a given occupation, plus the number of workers leaving the workforce (exits), plus the number of workers changing occupations (transfers). In almost all occupations, the total number of job openings is largely dictated by the number of workers leaving the workforce and the number of workers changing occupations. The projected growth or decline is generally a small component of total openings.
For example, the occupational projections table shows that the number of cashiers (SOC 41-2011) in Wyoming is projected to grow from 6,813 in 2017Q2 to 6,941 in 2019Q2, a growth of 128, or 1.9%. However, an additional 1,291 openings are projected due to individuals exiting the occupation, and an additional 1,260 openings are projected due to transfers, the total number of openings – growth plus exits plus transfers – is projected to be 2,679.
Forthcoming research from R&P will discuss occupational projections by typical educational requirement.
Reference
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2018). Spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products. Retrieved February 22, 2018, from https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx
?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=M
