Long-Term Occupational Projections by Educational Level and Replacement Need: 2012 to 2022
According to the latest projections from the Research & Planning section of the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services, Wyoming is expected to add 54,006 new jobs from 2012 to 2022, but the best outlook for employment will be the need to replace workers who leave the state’s workforce over the 10-year period (Glover, 2013).
Wyoming will need to fill 31,888 jobs during each of the next 10 years due to replacement need. These openings are due to workers leaving Wyoming’s workforce because of retirement, job change, family priorities, death, or other reasons. By comparison, Wyoming is projected to add only 5,401 new jobs annually during this period.
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The three major occupational groups with the largest number of annual openings due to replacement need are also projected to add a substantial number of new jobs each year through 2022. As seen in Table 1, the construction & extraction major occupational group will have the most job openings due to replacement need at 5,356 annually, and will also add the most new jobs at 774. The second highest replacement need job openings yearly will be in the office & administrative support major occupational group with 3,958 and 593 new jobs. The food preparation and serving related major occupational group is projected to have 3,306 annual openings due to replacement need and add 375 new jobs each year.
Levels of Education
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The total number of occupations requiring a high school education or less is projected to grow by 33,099 (17.7%) by 2022. Of the top 10 occupations with the highest number of annual openings due to replacement need, four will increase by more than 700. These are retail salespersons at 999; heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers at 808; combined food preparation & serving workers, including fast food at 724; and cashiers at 718. The total number of projected annual openings due to replacement need for this educational level is 22,412 (see Table 2).
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Table 3 shows that five of the top 10 occupations requiring some college are projected to replace workers at a rate of over 100 per year: electricians at 394; substitute teachers at 264; plumbers, pipefitters, & steamfitters at 181; mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines at 152; and automotive service technicians & mechanics at 132. The total number of annual openings due to replacement need for this educational level is 1,924.
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Five of the top 10 occupations requiring a certificate are projected to have more than 50 replacement need openings for each of these 10 years: teacher assistants at 335; licensed practical & licensed vocational nurses at 80; executive secretaries & executive administrative assistants at 76; preschool teachers, except special education at 72; and billing & posting clerks at 65 (see Table 4). The total projected number of annual openings due to replacement need for this educational level is 668.
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The only occupation requiring an associate’s degree that is projected to have more than 100 annual openings due to replacement need is registered nurses at 450. Table 5 shows that the total number of annual openings due to replacement need for this educational level is 879.
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For jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree, five of the top 10 have projected replacement need openings of more than 170 annually. These are general & operations managers at 654; elementary school teachers, except special education at 253; sales representatives, wholesale & manufacturing, except technical & scientific products at 208; secondary school teachers, except special & career/technical education at 175; and accountants & auditors at 174. Table 6 shows the total number of projected annual openings due to replacement need for this educational level is 4,580.
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For jobs requiring a master’s degree, only three of the top 10 have projected annual openings of at least 40 due to replacement need: educational, guidance, school, & vocational counselors at 64; education administrators, elementary & secondary school at 40; and physical therapists at 40 (see Table 7). The total number of projected replacement need jobs each year for this educational level is 668.
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Of the top 10 occupations requiring a doctoral or professional degree, only two are projected to have more than 50 annual openings due to replacement need: lawyers at 88 and pharmacists at 57. The total projected number of annual openings due to replacement need for this educational level is 452 (see Table 8).
Of the 21 occupations requiring more than a high school diploma that are projected to have at least 60 annual openings due to replacement need, four are in the health care and social assistance field: registered nurses (450); social & human service assistants (209); licensed practical & licensed vocational nurses (80); and education, guidance, school, & vocational counselors (64).
Of the 12 occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to have at least 75 annual openings due to replacement need, five are in the education field: elementary school teachers, except special education (960); secondary school teachers, except special & career/technical education (685); middle school teachers, except special & career/technical education (362); teacher assistants (335); and substitute teachers (264).
Conclusion
As Wyoming’s labor market grows over the next 10 years, it will continue to be mostly made up of occupations that require a high school diploma or less. The three major occupational groups with the largest number of annual openings due to replacement need are construction & extraction, office & administrative support, and food preparation & serving related, all of which require a high school diploma or less.
Detailed occupational projections are available online at http://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/projections.htm.
Reference
Glover, T. (2013). Wyoming’s Occupational Projections 2012 to 2022. Casper: Wyoming Department of Workforce Services, Research & Planning.