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The Recent Labor Market Downturn as a Natural Experiment, Part 3:

Previous Unemployment Insurance (UI) Spells as a Predictor of the Length of Future UI Benefit Collection
(Tables and Figures)

Related Article

Tables 1, 2, 3
Figures 1, 2, 3

 

Table 1: Definitions of Variables Used in the Regression Analysis
Variable Definition
time1_age Age at first claim divided by 10
time1_ed Education at first claim
used_eb 1 if claimant used Extended Benefits, 0 otherwise
f_msa 1 if claimant resided in a Cheyenne or Casper (MSA), 0 otherwise
F_union 1 if claimant was part of a union hiring hall or was job attached, 0 otherwise
F_resident 1 if claimant had a Wyoming address (WY resident), 0 otherwise
F_SecondQuarter 1 if claimant started collecting benefits in the second calendar quarter, 0 otherwise
F_ThirdQuarter 1 if claimant started collecting benefits in the third calendar quarter, 0 otherwise
F_FourthQuarter 1 if claimant started collecting benefits in the fourth calendar quarter, 0 otherwise
f_natres 1 if claimant collected under natural resources and mining , 0 otherwise
f_construct 1 if claimant collected under construction , 0 otherwise
f_manufact 1 if claimant collected under manufacturing , 0 otherwise
f_trade 1 if claimant collected under trade, transportation, or utilities , 0 otherwise
f_info 1 if claimant collected under information or financial activities , 0 otherwise
f_profess 1 if claimant collected under professional and business services , 0 otherwise
f_edandhealth 1 if claimant collected under educational and health , 0 otherwise
f_leisure 1 if claimant collected under leisure and hospitality , 0 otherwise
f_otherservices 1 if claimant collected under other services , 0 otherwise
f_public 1 if claimant collected under government, 0 otherwise
f_unclassified 1 if claimant collected under unclassified, 0 otherwise
firstweekselg The number of weeks of benefit eligibility for first claim
f_wba100_adj Weekly benefit amount divided by 100 (adjusted to 2013 CPI)
firstue Local Unemployment Rate at the time of first claim
avg_ue_before Average Local Unemployment Rate three months prior to the month of first claim
avg_ue_after Average Local Unemployment Rate three months after the month of first claim
all_qtrs_before_first The number of unique quarters claimant had wages in Wyoming Wage Records
qtrs_worked_4_prior_first The number of quarters claimant had wages four quarters prior to first claim
qtrs_tenured_4_prior_first The number of quarters the claimant was continuously employed by an employer four quarters prior to first claim
employers_4_prior_first The number of employers the claimant had four quarters prior to first claim
months_between_spells The number of months between the first and second claim
weeks_unemployed Number of weeks unemployed between first claim and re-employment
sameemp 1 if the claimant was re-employed with the same employer after first claim
qtrs_worked_4_after_first The number of quarters claimant had wages four quarters after first claim
qtrly_wages_4_after_first The average quarterly wages four quarters after first claim divided by 10,000
qtrs_tenured_4_after_first The number of quarters the claimant was continuously employed by an employer four quarters after to first claim
employers_4_after_first The number of employers the claimant had four quarters after first claim
wagediff The difference in wages after collecting UI benefits compared to prior (wages after - wages prior)
age_change The change in age from the first claim to the second
msa_change 1 if claimant moved to or out of Cheyenne or Casper, 0 otherwise
QuarterChange 1 if the claimant filed their second claim in a different quarter than their first, 0 otherwise
industry_change 1 if the claimant filed their second claim under a different industry than their first, 0 otherwise
union_change 1 if the claimant changed their union or job attached status from first to second claim, 0 otherwise
res_change 1 if the claimant filed their second claim under a different county of residence than their first, 0 otherwise
weekselg_change The change in the number of weeks of benefit eligibility from first claim to second
wba_change100_adj The change in the weekly benefit amount from first to second claim divided by 100 (adjusted to 2013 CPI)
unemp_change The change in the Local Unemployment Rate from first to second claim
uebefore_weeksue (Average Local Unemployment Rate three months prior to the month of first claim * Number of weeks unemployed between first claim and re-employment) divided by 10
sameemp_wagesafter 1 if the claimant was re-employed with the same employer after first claim divided by 10,000 * The average quarterly wages four quarters after first claim
eb_weeksue 1 if claimant used Extended Benefits, 0 otherwise * Number of weeks unemployed between first claim and re-employment
wagediff_wba The difference in wages after collecting UI benefits compared to prior (wages after - wages prior) * Weekly benefit amount divided by 100 (adjusted to 2013 CPI)

 

Table 2: Average Length of Benefit Collection by Gender and Claim Sequence Number
Male Sample
Claim Sequence Total Average Number of Weeks Claimed by Claim Sequence
1 18,665 16.4
2 18,622 17.3
3 8,353 16.4
4 4,334 16.3
5+ 5,293 14.9
All Spells 55,267 16.6
  Female Sample  
Claim Sequence Total Average Number of Weeks
Claimed by Claim Sequence
1 6,788 18.4
2 6,765 20.1
3 2,535 17.5
4 1,241 16.1
5+ 1,566 14.3
All Spells 18,895 18.4

 

Table 3: Multiple Regression Results By Gender
Female Sample Male Sample
Variable B Beta t Sig. B Beta t Sig.
Intercept 0.324 1.305 0.192 0.025 0.118 0.906
time1_age 0.030 0.033 2.213 0.027 0.060 0.065 6.883 0.000
time1_ed -0.021 -0.038 -2.731 0.006 0.005 0.008 0.930 0.352
used_eb -0.839 -0.293 -18.729 0.000 -0.742 -0.243 -25.410 0.000
f_msa 0.014 0.005 0.321 0.748 -0.016 -0.005 -0.591 0.555
F_union -0.123 -0.042 -2.654 0.008 -0.068 -0.027 -2.695 0.007
F_resident 0.113 0.032 1.889 0.059 0.126 0.039 3.671 0.000
F_SecondQuarter -0.176 -0.062 -3.538 0.000 -0.045 -0.015 -1.438 0.151
F_ThirdQuarter -0.045 -0.013 -0.804 0.422 0.023 0.006 0.586 0.558
F_FourthQuarter -0.057 -0.022 -1.169 0.242 0.027 0.010 0.928 0.353
f_natres 0.162 0.023 1.040 0.298 0.241 0.060 1.395 0.163
f_construct -0.011 -0.003 -0.086 0.932 0.207 0.082 1.207 0.227
f_manufact 0.097 0.015 0.640 0.522 0.324 0.059 1.834 0.067
f_trade 0.124 0.035 0.952 0.341 0.219 0.052 1.263 0.207
f_info 0.032 0.004 0.202 0.840 0.338 0.025 1.640 0.101
f_profess 0.026 0.006 0.191 0.849 0.173 0.035 0.988 0.323
f_edandhealth 0.085 0.023 0.740 0.459 0.173 0.014 1.111 0.266
f_leisure -0.012 -0.005 -0.099 0.921 0.039 0.010 0.223 0.823
f_otherservices -0.039 -0.005 -0.252 0.801 0.297 0.031 1.594 0.111
f_public 0.062 0.016 0.582 0.561 0.132 0.024 0.804 0.422
f_unclassified 0.144 0.023 0.952 0.341 0.178 0.034 1.007 0.314
firstweekselg 0.022 0.089 3.812 0.000 0.013 0.053 3.462 0.001
f_wba100_adj -0.016 -0.015 -0.606 0.545 -0.047 -0.040 -2.949 0.003
firstue 0.002 0.005 0.141 0.888 0.043 0.075 3.433 0.001
avg_ue_before 0.045 0.071 2.064 0.039 0.013 0.020 0.932 0.352
avg_ue_after -0.071 -0.116 -3.547 0.000 -0.108 -0.171 -8.380 0.000
all_qtrs_before_first 0.001 0.023 1.442 0.149 -0.002 -0.024 -2.439 0.015
qtrs_worked_4_prior_first 0.027 0.015 0.689 0.491 -0.011 -0.007 -0.468 0.640
qtrs_tenured_4_prior_first -0.019 -0.021 -0.883 0.377 0.019 0.022 1.330 0.184
employers_4_prior_first 0.004 0.004 0.197 0.844 0.001 0.001 0.094 0.925
qtrs_worked_4_after_first -0.041 -0.033 -1.287 0.198 -0.032 -0.027 -1.607 0.108
qtrly_wages_4_after_first -0.101 -0.028 -1.023 0.306 -0.138 -0.058 -3.502 0.000
qtrs_tenured_4_after_first -0.019 -0.024 -0.907 0.364 -0.007 -0.009 -0.496 0.620
employers_4_after_first -0.062 -0.055 -2.969 0.003 -0.039 -0.033 -2.661 0.008
months_between_spells -0.011 -0.151 -4.677 0.000 -0.012 -0.135 -7.256 0.000
weeks_unemployed -0.002 -0.032 -0.909 0.364 -0.001 -0.012 -0.517 0.605
sameemp 0.105 0.038 1.976 0.048 0.168 0.058 4.637 0.000
wagediff 0.193 0.057 0.849 0.396 -0.205 -0.089 -1.572 0.116
age_change 0.118 0.015 0.474 0.636 0.138 0.015 0.834 0.404
msa_change 0.091 0.012 0.839 0.401 -0.004 0.000 -0.055 0.956
QuarterChange 0.099 0.040 2.671 0.008 0.162 0.065 7.048 0.000
industry_change 0.066 0.027 1.628 0.104 0.026 0.010 1.016 0.310
union_change -0.103 -0.033 -2.368 0.018 -0.056 -0.020 -2.340 0.019
res_change 0.046 0.009 0.622 0.534 0.040 0.007 0.855 0.393
weekselg_change 0.037 0.181 8.814 0.000 0.034 0.155 12.073 0.000
wba_change100_adj 0.168 0.137 7.862 0.000 0.142 0.109 10.028 0.000
unemp_change 0.075 0.150 8.364 0.000 0.076 0.143 12.430 0.000
uebefore_weeksue 0.016 0.015 0.395 0.693 -0.007 -0.007 -0.294 0.768
sameemp_wagesafter 0.134 0.059 2.612 0.009 0.094 0.054 3.654 0.000
wagediff_wba -0.048 -0.056 -0.928 0.353 0.066 0.121 2.223 0.026
Model Significance R2 = .22, F(49, 4435) = 26.17, p < .000 R2 = .21, F(49, 11207) = 59.78, p < .000

 

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Table of Contents

January 2015, Vol. 52 No. 1


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