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© Copyright 1998 by the Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning

The Retail Trade industry includes establishments engaged in selling merchandise for personal or household consumption and rendering services incidental to the sale of the goods. The selling of merchandise is highly seasonal and readily influenced by weather, tourism and holidays (mainly Christmas). The Figure shows Retail Trade employment gradually increasing over the last ten years; however, the annual growth rate has declined significantly since 1995. From 1988-94 Wyoming’s Retail Trade industry produced 7,353 (+13.6%) new jobs compared to 1,053 (+2.4%) over the last four years (1995-98).

Wyoming averaged 949 new jobs a year from 1988-94 compared to 311 annual jobs since 1995, correlating to a change in the analysis of the Retail Trade trend for the same time period. The main reason for this significant change is due to the decrease in seasonality within the overall time series. For example, during Christmas an employer may hire additional (seasonal) employees to help through the holiday season.

Preliminary analysis at the industry level shows seasonal employment has declined over the last ten years. The major reason for this decline could be a result from less employee turnover/separation. For example, employers allow their employees more hours instead of hiring additional help and having to take the time to train them. Data collected by the Total Nonagricultural Wage & Salary survey show the average weekly hours in the Retail Trade industry have gradually increased since the early 1990’s.

Looking at the Table, the projected estimate of 45,488 and the 10 month average of 45,283 for October are well within the error (acceptable) level when comparing these estimates to the October 1998 Retail Trade estimate. Therefore, there is no significant difference between these estimates, and the present trend is holding true based on past performance.

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