The Recent Labor Market Downturn as a Natural Experiment, Part 3:
Previous Unemployment Insurance (UI) Spells as a Predictor of the Length of Future UI Benefit Collection
(Tables and Figures)
Tables 1, 2, 3
Figures 1, 2, 3
| Variable | Definition |
|---|---|
| time1_age | Age at first claim divided by 10 |
| time1_ed | Education at first claim |
| used_eb | 1 if claimant used Extended Benefits, 0 otherwise |
| f_msa | 1 if claimant resided in a Cheyenne or Casper (MSA), 0 otherwise |
| F_union | 1 if claimant was part of a union hiring hall or was job attached, 0 otherwise |
| F_resident | 1 if claimant had a Wyoming address (WY resident), 0 otherwise |
| F_SecondQuarter | 1 if claimant started collecting benefits in the second calendar quarter, 0 otherwise |
| F_ThirdQuarter | 1 if claimant started collecting benefits in the third calendar quarter, 0 otherwise |
| F_FourthQuarter | 1 if claimant started collecting benefits in the fourth calendar quarter, 0 otherwise |
| f_natres | 1 if claimant collected under natural resources and mining , 0 otherwise |
| f_construct | 1 if claimant collected under construction , 0 otherwise |
| f_manufact | 1 if claimant collected under manufacturing , 0 otherwise |
| f_trade | 1 if claimant collected under trade, transportation, or utilities , 0 otherwise |
| f_info | 1 if claimant collected under information or financial activities , 0 otherwise |
| f_profess | 1 if claimant collected under professional and business services , 0 otherwise |
| f_edandhealth | 1 if claimant collected under educational and health , 0 otherwise |
| f_leisure | 1 if claimant collected under leisure and hospitality , 0 otherwise |
| f_otherservices | 1 if claimant collected under other services , 0 otherwise |
| f_public | 1 if claimant collected under government, 0 otherwise |
| f_unclassified | 1 if claimant collected under unclassified, 0 otherwise |
| firstweekselg | The number of weeks of benefit eligibility for first claim |
| f_wba100_adj | Weekly benefit amount divided by 100 (adjusted to 2013 CPI) |
| firstue | Local Unemployment Rate at the time of first claim |
| avg_ue_before | Average Local Unemployment Rate three months prior to the month of first claim |
| avg_ue_after | Average Local Unemployment Rate three months after the month of first claim |
| all_qtrs_before_first | The number of unique quarters claimant had wages in Wyoming Wage Records |
| qtrs_worked_4_prior_first | The number of quarters claimant had wages four quarters prior to first claim |
| qtrs_tenured_4_prior_first | The number of quarters the claimant was continuously employed by an employer four quarters prior to first claim |
| employers_4_prior_first | The number of employers the claimant had four quarters prior to first claim |
| months_between_spells | The number of months between the first and second claim |
| weeks_unemployed | Number of weeks unemployed between first claim and re-employment |
| sameemp | 1 if the claimant was re-employed with the same employer after first claim |
| qtrs_worked_4_after_first | The number of quarters claimant had wages four quarters after first claim |
| qtrly_wages_4_after_first | The average quarterly wages four quarters after first claim divided by 10,000 |
| qtrs_tenured_4_after_first | The number of quarters the claimant was continuously employed by an employer four quarters after to first claim |
| employers_4_after_first | The number of employers the claimant had four quarters after first claim |
| wagediff | The difference in wages after collecting UI benefits compared to prior (wages after - wages prior) |
| age_change | The change in age from the first claim to the second |
| msa_change | 1 if claimant moved to or out of Cheyenne or Casper, 0 otherwise |
| QuarterChange | 1 if the claimant filed their second claim in a different quarter than their first, 0 otherwise |
| industry_change | 1 if the claimant filed their second claim under a different industry than their first, 0 otherwise |
| union_change | 1 if the claimant changed their union or job attached status from first to second claim, 0 otherwise |
| res_change | 1 if the claimant filed their second claim under a different county of residence than their first, 0 otherwise |
| weekselg_change | The change in the number of weeks of benefit eligibility from first claim to second |
| wba_change100_adj | The change in the weekly benefit amount from first to second claim divided by 100 (adjusted to 2013 CPI) |
| unemp_change | The change in the Local Unemployment Rate from first to second claim |
| uebefore_weeksue | (Average Local Unemployment Rate three months prior to the month of first claim * Number of weeks unemployed between first claim and re-employment) divided by 10 |
| sameemp_wagesafter | 1 if the claimant was re-employed with the same employer after first claim divided by 10,000 * The average quarterly wages four quarters after first claim |
| eb_weeksue | 1 if claimant used Extended Benefits, 0 otherwise * Number of weeks unemployed between first claim and re-employment |
| wagediff_wba | The difference in wages after collecting UI benefits compared to prior (wages after - wages prior) * Weekly benefit amount divided by 100 (adjusted to 2013 CPI) |
| Male Sample | ||
|---|---|---|
| Claim Sequence | Total | Average Number of Weeks Claimed by Claim Sequence |
| 1 | 18,665 | 16.4 |
| 2 | 18,622 | 17.3 |
| 3 | 8,353 | 16.4 |
| 4 | 4,334 | 16.3 |
| 5+ | 5,293 | 14.9 |
| All Spells | 55,267 | 16.6 |
| Female Sample | ||
| Claim Sequence | Total |
Average Number of Weeks Claimed by Claim Sequence |
| 1 | 6,788 | 18.4 |
| 2 | 6,765 | 20.1 |
| 3 | 2,535 | 17.5 |
| 4 | 1,241 | 16.1 |
| 5+ | 1,566 | 14.3 |
| All Spells | 18,895 | 18.4 |
| Female Sample | Male Sample | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | B | Beta | t | Sig. | B | Beta | t | Sig. |
| Intercept | 0.324 | 1.305 | 0.192 | 0.025 | 0.118 | 0.906 | ||
| time1_age | 0.030 | 0.033 | 2.213 | 0.027 | 0.060 | 0.065 | 6.883 | 0.000 |
| time1_ed | -0.021 | -0.038 | -2.731 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.930 | 0.352 |
| used_eb | -0.839 | -0.293 | -18.729 | 0.000 | -0.742 | -0.243 | -25.410 | 0.000 |
| f_msa | 0.014 | 0.005 | 0.321 | 0.748 | -0.016 | -0.005 | -0.591 | 0.555 |
| F_union | -0.123 | -0.042 | -2.654 | 0.008 | -0.068 | -0.027 | -2.695 | 0.007 |
| F_resident | 0.113 | 0.032 | 1.889 | 0.059 | 0.126 | 0.039 | 3.671 | 0.000 |
| F_SecondQuarter | -0.176 | -0.062 | -3.538 | 0.000 | -0.045 | -0.015 | -1.438 | 0.151 |
| F_ThirdQuarter | -0.045 | -0.013 | -0.804 | 0.422 | 0.023 | 0.006 | 0.586 | 0.558 |
| F_FourthQuarter | -0.057 | -0.022 | -1.169 | 0.242 | 0.027 | 0.010 | 0.928 | 0.353 |
| f_natres | 0.162 | 0.023 | 1.040 | 0.298 | 0.241 | 0.060 | 1.395 | 0.163 |
| f_construct | -0.011 | -0.003 | -0.086 | 0.932 | 0.207 | 0.082 | 1.207 | 0.227 |
| f_manufact | 0.097 | 0.015 | 0.640 | 0.522 | 0.324 | 0.059 | 1.834 | 0.067 |
| f_trade | 0.124 | 0.035 | 0.952 | 0.341 | 0.219 | 0.052 | 1.263 | 0.207 |
| f_info | 0.032 | 0.004 | 0.202 | 0.840 | 0.338 | 0.025 | 1.640 | 0.101 |
| f_profess | 0.026 | 0.006 | 0.191 | 0.849 | 0.173 | 0.035 | 0.988 | 0.323 |
| f_edandhealth | 0.085 | 0.023 | 0.740 | 0.459 | 0.173 | 0.014 | 1.111 | 0.266 |
| f_leisure | -0.012 | -0.005 | -0.099 | 0.921 | 0.039 | 0.010 | 0.223 | 0.823 |
| f_otherservices | -0.039 | -0.005 | -0.252 | 0.801 | 0.297 | 0.031 | 1.594 | 0.111 |
| f_public | 0.062 | 0.016 | 0.582 | 0.561 | 0.132 | 0.024 | 0.804 | 0.422 |
| f_unclassified | 0.144 | 0.023 | 0.952 | 0.341 | 0.178 | 0.034 | 1.007 | 0.314 |
| firstweekselg | 0.022 | 0.089 | 3.812 | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.053 | 3.462 | 0.001 |
| f_wba100_adj | -0.016 | -0.015 | -0.606 | 0.545 | -0.047 | -0.040 | -2.949 | 0.003 |
| firstue | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.141 | 0.888 | 0.043 | 0.075 | 3.433 | 0.001 |
| avg_ue_before | 0.045 | 0.071 | 2.064 | 0.039 | 0.013 | 0.020 | 0.932 | 0.352 |
| avg_ue_after | -0.071 | -0.116 | -3.547 | 0.000 | -0.108 | -0.171 | -8.380 | 0.000 |
| all_qtrs_before_first | 0.001 | 0.023 | 1.442 | 0.149 | -0.002 | -0.024 | -2.439 | 0.015 |
| qtrs_worked_4_prior_first | 0.027 | 0.015 | 0.689 | 0.491 | -0.011 | -0.007 | -0.468 | 0.640 |
| qtrs_tenured_4_prior_first | -0.019 | -0.021 | -0.883 | 0.377 | 0.019 | 0.022 | 1.330 | 0.184 |
| employers_4_prior_first | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.197 | 0.844 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.094 | 0.925 |
| qtrs_worked_4_after_first | -0.041 | -0.033 | -1.287 | 0.198 | -0.032 | -0.027 | -1.607 | 0.108 |
| qtrly_wages_4_after_first | -0.101 | -0.028 | -1.023 | 0.306 | -0.138 | -0.058 | -3.502 | 0.000 |
| qtrs_tenured_4_after_first | -0.019 | -0.024 | -0.907 | 0.364 | -0.007 | -0.009 | -0.496 | 0.620 |
| employers_4_after_first | -0.062 | -0.055 | -2.969 | 0.003 | -0.039 | -0.033 | -2.661 | 0.008 |
| months_between_spells | -0.011 | -0.151 | -4.677 | 0.000 | -0.012 | -0.135 | -7.256 | 0.000 |
| weeks_unemployed | -0.002 | -0.032 | -0.909 | 0.364 | -0.001 | -0.012 | -0.517 | 0.605 |
| sameemp | 0.105 | 0.038 | 1.976 | 0.048 | 0.168 | 0.058 | 4.637 | 0.000 |
| wagediff | 0.193 | 0.057 | 0.849 | 0.396 | -0.205 | -0.089 | -1.572 | 0.116 |
| age_change | 0.118 | 0.015 | 0.474 | 0.636 | 0.138 | 0.015 | 0.834 | 0.404 |
| msa_change | 0.091 | 0.012 | 0.839 | 0.401 | -0.004 | 0.000 | -0.055 | 0.956 |
| QuarterChange | 0.099 | 0.040 | 2.671 | 0.008 | 0.162 | 0.065 | 7.048 | 0.000 |
| industry_change | 0.066 | 0.027 | 1.628 | 0.104 | 0.026 | 0.010 | 1.016 | 0.310 |
| union_change | -0.103 | -0.033 | -2.368 | 0.018 | -0.056 | -0.020 | -2.340 | 0.019 |
| res_change | 0.046 | 0.009 | 0.622 | 0.534 | 0.040 | 0.007 | 0.855 | 0.393 |
| weekselg_change | 0.037 | 0.181 | 8.814 | 0.000 | 0.034 | 0.155 | 12.073 | 0.000 |
| wba_change100_adj | 0.168 | 0.137 | 7.862 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.109 | 10.028 | 0.000 |
| unemp_change | 0.075 | 0.150 | 8.364 | 0.000 | 0.076 | 0.143 | 12.430 | 0.000 |
| uebefore_weeksue | 0.016 | 0.015 | 0.395 | 0.693 | -0.007 | -0.007 | -0.294 | 0.768 |
| sameemp_wagesafter | 0.134 | 0.059 | 2.612 | 0.009 | 0.094 | 0.054 | 3.654 | 0.000 |
| wagediff_wba | -0.048 | -0.056 | -0.928 | 0.353 | 0.066 | 0.121 | 2.223 | 0.026 |
| Model Significance | R2 = .22, F(49, 4435) = 26.17, p < .000 | R2 = .21, F(49, 11207) = 59.78, p < .000 | ||||||
