Projecting Industry Payroll Estimates
by: Richard Peters, Economist
analysis by: Gregg Detweiler, Senior Economist

One way to gauge the status of Wyoming's economy is to estimate quarterly industry payroll. In the past when it came to calculating quarterly payroll statistics, economists at Research & Planning analyzed data with a three quarter time lag.¹

Now, for each quarter, Wyoming Labor Force Trends will publish a window of quarterly employment and payroll estimates using data from Unemployment Insurance and Current Employment Statistics records (see Table and Figure). In this window, four trailing quarters of final, revisable, and preliminary estimates will precede two projected quarters. The first quarter of 1999 projected payroll is benchmarked to preliminary estimates. A projection error is expected when compared to preliminary estimates. If projections are more than 5.0 percent off, targeted research is performed to explain the error.

For this quarter, Mining, Construction, Manufacturing, and Federal Government are outside acceptable parameters for projection error. As of this writing, the Mining industry's shortfall is anomalous, with a non-economic code change² as the only explanation for the discrepancy. Construction overshot its mark due to an out-of-state contractor's lack of admission to the Wyoming Unemployment Insurance database prior to the analysis. Future revisions should match the projected estimate for the first quarter. Manufacturing clipped under projected estimates because of piecework and lower commissions. Federal government preliminaries are currently dismissed as inaccurate due to the slow reporting of data to Research & Planning.

In quarters to come, clients may track economic anomalies and receive timely information on payroll changes and the quarterly fitness of each Wyoming industry. For more payroll information, see "Economic Predictors for Wyoming."

1 Gregg Detweiler, "Wyoming Statewide Projections," Wyoming Industry & Occupational Projections 1996-2006: The Future of Wyoming's Labor Market.
2 Changes in a firm's Standard Industrial Classification code that are not accounted for in the Unemployment Insurance or Current Employment Statistics databases.

Table of Contents | Labor Market Information | Employment Resources | Send Us Mail

These pages designed by Gayle C. Edlin.
Last modified on by Valerie A. Davis.