Services Industry: Where Have We Been & Where Are We Going?
by: Carol Toups

This article features changes occurring in the Services industry from 1990 to 1996, along with projections for 1998 and 2005. Looking back to 1990, Retail Trade was ranked number one among all industries with the annual average employment at 37,789 or 19.8 percent of all employment. More recently in 1996, Services held Wyoming’s top spot with an annual average employment of 45,652 (21.4%). Two major groups within Services are projected to have the most growth from 1998 to 2005: 1) Engineering, Accounting, Research, Management & Related Services and 2) Health Services. Health Services also had both the largest employment and wage increases from 1990 to 1996, with Social Services in second place for growth during this time.

The Services industry is comprised of sixteen major groups categorized by the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. Please refer to these definitions of the two-digit SIC major group numbers for the Tables presented:
  • SIC 70 - Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places;
  • SIC 72 - Personal Services;
  • SIC 73 - Business Services;
  • SIC 75 - Automotive Repair, Services and Parking;
  • SIC 76 - Miscellaneous Repair Services;
  • SIC 78 - Motion Pictures;
  • SIC 79 - Amusement and Recreation Services;
  • SIC 80 - Health Services;
  • SIC 81 - Legal Services;
  • SIC 82 - Educational Services;
  • SIC 83 - Social Services;
  • SIC 84 - Museums, Art Galleries, and Botanical and Zoological Gardens;
  • SIC 86 - Membership Organizations;
  • SIC 87 - Engineering, Accounting, Research, Management and Related Services;
  • SIC 88 - Private Households; and
  • SIC 89 - Miscellaneous Services, Not Elsewhere Classified.

The demand for Services employees is strongly associated with the increase in population (shown in the Figure; numbers for both figure variables were rounded to make the comparison more perceptible). There is a high correlation and statistical significance between Wyoming’s population and Services employment (see Table 1). As the demographic make-up of Wyoming’s population changes, employment make-up in the Services industry will also change (see Table 2 for projected employment changes). Other factors such as new technology, tourism, overall changes in the economy and social interaction also influence the demand for Services employees. Wyoming’s 1996 population increased only because net births were higher than net deaths1. With a slowing population growth and increases occurring only among the very young, there may be a shift of demand in Services. Groups that commonly accommodate the young, such as Amusement and Recreation Services, Educational Services and Social Services will possibly increase, while the demand for groups such as Business Services may decline.

Table 1: Regression Analysis / Predictive Model
(R-Squared = 0.972)
Variable t-Statistic Coefficient Value
Concept or Intercept Term -10.615 -115,833
Population 14.362 0.334
For an explanation of "regression analysis," please refer to the article "Wyoming Housing and Home Improvement Markets" in the December 1995 issue of Wyoming Labor Force Trends.

 

Figure: Wyoming Total Population vs Services Industry Annual Average Employment

 

Table 2: Services Employment Projections
for 1998 and 2005 by 2-Digit SIC
Employment Numerical Change
2-Digit SIC Base 1994 Projected 1998 Projected 2005 1994 - 1998 1994 - 2005
70 8,585 9,759 12,218 1,174 3,633
72 1,835 1,932 2,145 97 310
73 4,839 5,311 4,663 472 -176
75 1,653 1,713 1,618 60 -35
76 778 849 850 71 72
78 778 952 1,297 174 519
79 2,357 2,879 3,983 522 1,626
80 9,307 11,719 16,827 2,412 7,520
81 1,153 1,292 1,513 139 360
82 723 917 1,343 194 620
83 4,782 5,331 5,546 549 764
84 246 375 382 129 136
86 3,595 3,600 1,860 5 -1,735
87 2,956 4,485 11,613 1,529 8,657
88 516 722 1,279 206 763
89 72 109 179 37 107
TOTAL 44,175 51,945 67,316 7,770 24,876
~SIC's 80, 87 and 70 are expected to have the largest employment gains.
~SIC's 86, 73, and 75 are predicted to lose employment from 1998 to 2005.

Information for this Table was originally published in What Does the Future Have in Store for Wyoming's Labor Market: Wyoming 1998 and 2005.

In 1994, Retail Trade moved out of first place as the largest employment industry and Services moved in (see Table 3 for details of Services employment from 1990 - 1996). Local Government and Mining remained in third and fourth place, respectively, from 1990 to 1996. Mining wages have consistently remained at the top; the 1990 annual average weekly wage was $720 and by 1996 had climbed to $864. In comparison, the annual average weekly wage for Services rose from $286 in 1990 to only $347 in 1996. Services ranked tenth place in 1990 (out of only twelve industries) and remained there in 1996 (see Table 4). Wages for Agriculture ($253 in 1990, and $303 in 1996) and Retail Trade ($200 in 1990 and $238 in 1996) were the only two industries ranking lower than Services.

 Table 3: Services Annual Average Employment
 by Rank and 2-Digit SIC for 1990 and 1996
1990 1996 1990 - 1996 Change
2-Digit SIC Annual Average Employment 2-Digit SIC Annual Average Employment 2-Digit SIC Numerical Percent
70 7,894 80 9,930 80 2,250 29.3
80 7,680 70 9,018 83 2,066 64.9
73 3,888 73 5,430 73 1,542 39.7
83 3,184 83 5,250 70 1,124 14.2
87 2,241 87 3,288 87 1,047 46.7
79 2,003 79 2,659 79 656 32.8
86 1,864 72 1,883 75 459 33.8
72 1,650 75 1,817 72 233 14.1
75 1,358 86 1,816 88 212 59.7
76 1,151 81 1,215 81 173 16.6
81 1,042 76 884 82 139 23.7
78 654 78 793 78 139 21.3
82 587 82 726 84 110 67.1
88 355 88 567 89 55 117.0
84 164 84 274 86 -48 -2.6
89 47 89 102 76 -267 -23.2
TOTAL 35,762 TOTAL 45,652 TOTAL 9,890 27.7%

~SIC 70 and 80 traded top placement during this period.
~Most groups have remained in or close to the same ranking.
~Highest employment gains were in SIC's 80, 83, 73, 70, and 87, respectively.
~SIC's 89, 84, 83, and 88 had the highest percentage employment increases, respectively.
~SIC's 76 and 86 were the only two groups with decreasing employment. 

Table 4: Services Average Weekly Wage
 by Rank and 2-Digit SIC for 1990 and 1996

1990 1996 1990 - 1996 Change
2-Digit SIC Average Weekly Wage 2-Digit SIC Average Weekly Wage 2-Digit SIC Numerical Percent
89 $567 87 $601 80 $109 27.1
87 $508 81 $578 87 $93 18.3
81 $488 80 $511 81 $90 18.4
76 $424 76 $484 76 $60 14.2
80 $402 89 $364 83 $57 29.5
82 $370 82 $358 73 $55 22.5
79 $340 75 $335 75 $45 15.5
75 $290 79 $312 70 $43 27.4
84 $280 73 $299 78 $36 31.6
73 $244 84 $294 72 $34 17.9
88 $214 83 $250 88 $32 15.0
86 $204 88 $246 86 $28 13.7
83 $193 86 $232 84 $14 5.0
72 $190 72 $224 82 -$12 -3.2
70 $157 70 $200 79 -$28 -8.2
78 $114 78 $150 89 -$203 -35.8
TOTAL $286 TOTAL $347 TOTAL $61 21.3%
~SIC's 78, 70 and 72, respectively, remained in the lowest average weekly wage rankings.
~Top spots varied among SIC's 89, 87, 81, 80 and 76. Note that high bonus payments will skew average wages, as was the case for SIC 89 in 1990.
~Wyoming annual average weekly wage across ALL industries for 1996 was $440.
~SIC's 80, 87, and 81 had the largest dollar increases, while SIC's 89, 79 and 82 declined.
~SIC 89 wages have been dropping since 1993, but the large decrease from 1990 to 1996 was due to bonus payments in 1990.

The 1996 Wyoming annual average weekly wage for all industries was $440. There were only four groups (which includes 15,317 employees or 33.6% of the workforce) in Services that had higher 1996 wages: Engineering, Accounting, Research, Management & Related Services; Legal Services; Health Services; and Miscellaneous Repair Services. The remaining 30,335 (66.4%) employees made well below the average wage. The number one predicted growing occupation of all industries from Services, Waiters & Waitresses, also happens to be the lowest paying job on the list of growing occupations2. This seems to be the common broad picture for Services; most of the major groups are increasing, but the wages will remain typically low.

Carol Toups is an Economist with Research & Planning.

1 Bureau of the Census.

2 What Does the Future Have in Store for Wyoming's Labor Market: Wyoming 1998 and 2005, another Research & Planning publication.

This article was published in the Wyoming Labor Force Trends December 1997 issue.

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