© Copyright 2016 by the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services, Research & Planning

Wyoming Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.9% in November 2016

The Research & Planning section of the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services reported today that the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell significantly from 5.1% in October to 4.9% in November. Wyoming’s unemployment rate remained higher than the current U.S. rate (4.6%) and significantly higher than its November 2015 level of 4.3%. Seasonally adjusted employment of Wyoming residents increased significantly from October to November, rising by an estimated 1,749 individuals (0.6%). However, employment remained well below last year’s level (down 3,735 individuals, or –1.3%). Additionally, Wyoming’s labor force has declined in over-the-year comparisons for each of the past 25 months.

From October to November, unemployment rates decreased slightly in 17 counties and increased in five counties, while Johnson County’s unemployment rate was unchanged. In Teton County, unemployment rose from 3.1% to 5.6% as the summer tourist season had ended and the ski season had not begun. The largest decrease in unemployment occurred in Campbell County (down from 6.3% to 5.9%).

From November 2015 to November 2016, unemployment rates fell in 11 counties, rose in 10 counties, and were unchanged in two counties (Johnson and Platte). Sizeable declines were seen in Teton (down from 6.7% to 5.6%), Lincoln (down from 4.5% to 3.8%), Sheridan (down from 4.2% to 3.7%), and Park (down from 4.8% to 4.3%) counties. The largest unemployment rate increases occurred in Campbell (up from 4.0% to 5.9%), Weston (up from 3.0% to 4.5%), Converse (up from 3.7% to 5.1%), and Natrona (up from 5.2% to 6.0%) counties.

The lowest unemployment rates in November were found in Albany (2.6%), Niobrara (2.6%), and Goshen (2.7%) counties. The highest rates were reported in Natrona (6.0%), Campbell (5.9%), and Fremont (5.8%) counties.

Total nonfarm employment (not seasonally adjusted and measured by place of work) fell from 285,400 in November 2015 to 276,600 in November 2016, a decrease of 8,800 jobs (or –3.1%; a statistically significant decrease).

Research & Planning has scheduled the December employment news release for January 24, 2017.



Wyoming Seasonally Adjusted Statewide Labor Force Estimates
                                                                                            Change
                                                                                 Month                    Year
                                November-16   October-16  November-15     absolute     percent    absolute     percent
Total Civilian Labor Force          302,395      301,438      304,586         957        0.3%      -2,191       -0.7%
Employed                            287,683      285,934      291,418       1,749        0.6%      -3,735       -1.3%
Unemployed                           14,712       15,504       13,168        -792       -5.1%       1,544       11.7%
Unemployment Rate                       4.9          5.1          4.3

Definitions:
Employed All persons who, during the reference week, did any work at all as paid employees, worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in a family business.
Unemployed All persons who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week.
Labor Force All persons who meet the criteria given above as either employed or unemployed.
Unemployment Rate The number of unemployed as a percent of the labor force.
Seasonal Adjustment A statistical procedure to remove the impact of normal regularly recurring events (such as weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools) from economic time series to better understand changes in economic conditions from month to month.


Current Employment Statistics (CES) Estimates and Research & Planning's Short-Term Projections, November 2016


Industry Sector                                            Current Employment
                               Research & Planning's        Statistics (CES)           N           %
                              Short-Term Projections            Estimates          Difference  Difference
Total Nonfarm                        274,984                    276,600             1,616         0.6%
Natural Resources & Mining            17,449                     19,000             1,551         8.2%
Construction                          21,384                     22,200               816         3.7%
Manufacturing                          9,547                     10,000               453         4.5%
Wholesale Trade                        7,769                      8,400               631         7.5%
Retail Trade                          31,068                     29,800            -1,268        -4.3%
Transportation & Utilities            13,925                     14,400               475         3.3%
Information                            3,725                      3,600              -125        -3.5%
Financial Activities                  10,581                     10,400              -181        -1.7%
Professional & Business Services      17,499                     18,100               601         3.3%
Educational & Health Services         27,624                     28,400               776         2.7%
Leisure & Hospitality                 31,882                     30,200            -1,682        -5.6%
Other Services                         9,533                     10,100               567         5.6%
Government                            72,998                     72,000              -998        -1.4%


Projections were run in November 2016 and based on QCEW data through June 2016.


For an explanation of the table shown above, please see New Monthly Feature in Trends: Comparison of Current Employment Statistics (CES) Estimates to Short-Term Employment Projections



Note Regarding Tables 1-3 Below

Not seasonally adjusted data reflect the actual economic conditions in a given area for a given time period. These data show the normal seasonal changes that occur in the economy. Most county unemployment rates are higher in the winter months because of seasonal job losses in construction, leisure & hospitality, and many other sectors. Similarly, most county unemployment rates are lower in the summer months as employment increases across the economy. Data users should use caution when comparing not seasonally adjusted data for different months, as at least part of the difference between months may reflect normal seasonal patterns.

In contrast, seasonally adjusted data have been subjected to a statistical procedure to remove the effects of normal changes that occur in the economy each year, such as seasonal hiring in the construction sector, the opening and closing of schools, and holiday hiring by retail trade establishments. There is no expectation that seasonally adjusted unemployment rates will be higher or lower in any particular month, except as the economy expands or contracts. The value of seasonally adjusted data is that it is easy to identify longer-term trends in the data and valid comparisons can be made between any two months in the series.

Research & Planning works in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to develop and publish unemployment rates for each county in Wyoming. However, these data are not seasonally adjusted and therefore reflect seasonal changes each month.


Table 1: Wyoming counties not seasonally adjusted unemployment 
rates ranked from lowest to highest for November 2016

    
     County                           Rate*
Albany County, WY                      2.6
Niobrara County, WY                    2.6
Goshen County, WY                      2.7
Laramie County, WY                     3.5
Washakie County, WY                    3.6
Crook County, WY                       3.7
Sheridan County, WY                    3.7
Carbon County, WY                      3.8
Lincoln County, WY                     3.8
Big Horn County, WY                    4.1
Hot Springs County, WY                 4.2
Platte County, WY                      4.2
Johnson County, WY                     4.3
Park County, WY                        4.3
Weston County, WY                      4.5
Wyoming                                4.6
Uinta County, WY                       4.8
Converse County, WY                    5.1
Sublette County, WY                    5.2
Sweetwater County, WY                  5.2
Teton County, WY                       5.6
Fremont County, WY                     5.8
Campbell County, WY                    5.9
Natrona County, WY                     6.0

*preliminary




Table 2: Wyoming counties not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates over-the-month rate
changes ranked from lowest to highest for November 2016

                                Month ago 		           Over-the-Month         Over-the-Month
    County                         rate             Rate*            Rate Change          Percent Change
Campbell County, WY                 6.3             5.9                 -0.4                   -6.3%
Crook County, WY                    4.0             3.7                 -0.3                   -7.5%
Fremont County, WY                  6.1             5.8                 -0.3                   -4.9%
Goshen County, WY                   3.0             2.7                 -0.3                  -10.0%
Laramie County, WY                  3.8             3.5                 -0.3                   -7.9%
Natrona County, WY                  6.3             6.0                 -0.3                   -4.8%
Niobrara County, WY                 2.9             2.6                 -0.3                  -10.3%
Albany County, WY                   2.8             2.6                 -0.2                   -7.1%
Carbon County, WY                   4.0             3.8                 -0.2                   -5.0%
Converse County, WY                 5.3             5.1                 -0.2                   -3.8%
Hot Springs County, WY              4.4             4.2                 -0.2                   -4.5%
Uinta County, WY                    5.0             4.8                 -0.2                   -4.0%
Washakie County, WY                 3.8             3.6                 -0.2                   -5.3%
Sheridan County, WY                 3.8             3.7                 -0.1                   -2.6%
Sublette County, WY                 5.3             5.2                 -0.1                   -1.9%
Sweetwater County, WY               5.3             5.2                 -0.1                   -1.9%
Weston County, WY                   4.6             4.5                 -0.1                   -2.2%
Johnson County, WY                  4.3             4.3                  0.0                    0.0%
Wyoming                             4.6             4.6                  0.0                    0.0%
Big Horn County, WY                 3.9             4.1                  0.2                    5.1%
Lincoln County, WY                  3.6             3.8                  0.2                    5.6%
Platte County, WY                   4.0             4.2                  0.2                    5.0%
Park County, WY                     3.9             4.3                  0.4                   10.3%
Teton County, WY                    3.1             5.6                  2.5                   80.6%

*preliminary




Table 3: Wyoming counties not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates over-the-year percent 
changes ranked from lowest to highest for November 2016
                                 Year ago                              Over-the-Year        Over-the-Year
   County                          Rate                Rate*            Rate Change         Percent Change
Teton County, WY                    6.7                 5.6                 -1.1                 -16.4%
Lincoln County, WY                  4.5                 3.8                 -0.7                 -15.6%
Park County, WY                     4.8                 4.3                 -0.5                 -10.4%
Sheridan County, WY                 4.2                 3.7                 -0.5                 -11.9%
Niobrara County, WY                 3.0                 2.6                 -0.4                 -13.3%
Albany County, WY                   2.9                 2.6                 -0.3                 -10.3%
Goshen County, WY                   3.0                 2.7                 -0.3                 -10.0%
Uinta County, WY                    5.1                 4.8                 -0.3                  -5.9%
Big Horn County, WY                 4.3                 4.1                 -0.2                  -4.7%
Laramie County, WY                  3.7                 3.5                 -0.2                  -5.4%
Washakie County, WY                 3.8                 3.6                 -0.2                  -5.3%
Johnson County, WY                  4.3                 4.3                  0.0                   0.0%
Platte County, WY                   4.2                 4.2                  0.0                   0.0%
Carbon County, WY                   3.7                 3.8                  0.1                   2.7%
Hot Springs County, WY              4.0                 4.2                  0.2                   5.0%
Sublette County, WY                 5.0                 5.2                  0.2                   4.0%
Wyoming                             4.4                 4.6                  0.2                   4.5%
Crook County, WY                    3.4                 3.7                  0.3                   8.8%
Fremont County, WY                  5.5                 5.8                  0.3                   5.5%
Sweetwater County, WY               4.8                 5.2                  0.4                   8.3%
Natrona County, WY                  5.2                 6.0                  0.8                  15.4%
Converse County, WY                 3.7                 5.1                  1.4                  37.8%
Weston County, WY                   3.0                 4.5                  1.5                  50.0%
Campbell County, WY                 4.0                 5.9                  1.9                  47.5%

*preliminary




Wyoming Department of Workforce Services
Research & Planning

December 20, 2016

Contacts:

David Bullard, Senior Economist, 307-473-3810

Carola Cowan, BLS Programs Supervisor, 307-473-3804


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