© Copyright 2016 by the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services, Research & Planning

Wyoming Unemployment Rate Falls to 5.1% in October 2016

The Research & Planning section of the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services reported today that the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell significantly from 5.4% (as revised) in September to 5.1% in October. Wyoming’s unemployment rate has now fallen for three consecutive months, but remains higher than its October 2015 level of 4.3%. Seasonally adjusted employment of Wyoming residents increased significantly, rising by an estimated 1,813 individuals (0.6%) from September to October. Wyoming’s labor force and employment both declined from year-ago levels. Labor force fell by 3,602 individuals (-1.2%) and employment fell by 5,997 individuals (-2.1%).

From September to October, most county unemployment rates changed very little. However, Teton County’s unemployment rate rose from 2.0% to 3.0% and Park County’s unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 3.9%. Unemployment rates often increase in October in some parts of the state as the summer tourist season has ended and the winter season has not yet started. Falling unemployment rates were seen in Campbell (down from 6.9% to 6.3%), Natrona (down from 6.6% to 6.3%), Fremont (down from 6.4% to 6.1%), and Converse (down from 5.6% to 5.3%) counties.

From October 2015 to October 2016, unemployment rates rose in 17 counties, fell in two counties, and were unchanged in four counties. The largest increases were seen in Campbell (up from 3.8% to 6.3%), Converse (up from 3.4% to 5.3%), Natrona (up from 4.8% to 6.3%), and Weston (up from 3.1% to 4.6%) counties. Unemployment rates decreased in Teton (down from 3.8% to 3.0%) and Lincoln (down from 4.1% to 3.6%) counties and were unchanged in Albany (2.8%), Big Horn (3.9%), Goshen (3.0%), and Niobrara (2.9%) counties.

Campbell and Natrona counties had the highest unemployment rates in October (both 6.3%). The next highest rates were found in Fremont (6.1%), Converse (5.3%), Sublette (5.3%), and Sweetwater (5.3%) counties. Albany County posted the lowest unemployment rate (2.8%), followed by Niobrara (2.9%), Teton (3.0%), and Goshen (3.0%) counties.

Total nonfarm employment (not seasonally adjusted and measured by place of work) fell from 291,600 in October 2015 to 281,100 in October 2016, a decrease of 10,500 jobs (or –3.6%; a statistically significant decrease).

Research & Planning has scheduled the November employment news release for December 20, 2016.



Wyoming Seasonally Adjusted Statewide Labor Force Estimates
                                                                                             Change
                                                                                 Month                    Year
                                  October-16 September-16   October-15    absolute     percent    absolute     percent
Total Civilian Labor Force          301,394      300,142      304,996       1,252        0.4%      -3,602       -1.2%
Employed                            285,897      284,084      291,894       1,813        0.6%      -5,997       -2.1%
Unemployed                           15,497       16,058       13,102        -561       -3.5%       2,395       18.3%
Unemployment Rate                       5.1          5.4          4.3

Definitions:
Employed All persons who, during the reference week, did any work at all as paid employees, worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in a family business.
Unemployed All persons who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week.
Labor Force All persons who meet the criteria given above as either employed or unemployed.
Unemployment Rate The number of unemployed as a percent of the labor force.
Seasonal Adjustment A statistical procedure to remove the impact of normal regularly recurring events (such as weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools) from economic time series to better understand changes in economic conditions from month to month.


Current Employment Statistics (CES) Estimates and Research & Planning's Short-Term Projections, October 2016


Industry Sector                                            Current Employment
                               Research & Planning's        Statistics (CES)           N           %
                              Short-Term Projections            Estimates          Difference  Difference
Total Nonfarm                        282,094                    281,100              -994       -0.4%
Natural Resources & Mining            17,707                     18,700               993         5.3%
Construction                          22,409                     22,800               391         1.7%
Manufacturing                          9,681                     10,000               319         3.2%
Wholesale Trade                        7,876                      8,300               424         5.1%
Retail Trade                          30,963                     29,600            -1,363        -4.6%
Transportation & Utilities            14,044                     14,200               156         1.1%
Information                            3,703                      3,600              -103        -2.9%
Financial Activities                  10,663                     10,600               -63        -0.6%
Professional & Business Services      17,963                     18,600               637         3.4%
Educational & Health Services         27,977                     28,000                23         0.1%
Leisure & Hospitality                 36,022                     33,900            -2,122        -6.3%
Other Services                         9,650                     10,300               650         6.3%
Government                            73,436                     72,500              -936        -1.3%


Projections were run in November 2016 and based on QCEW data through June 2016.


For an explanation of the table shown above, please see New Monthly Feature in Trends: Comparison of Current Employment Statistics (CES) Estimates to Short-Term Employment Projections



Note Regarding Tables 1-3 Below

Not seasonally adjusted data reflect the actual economic conditions in a given area for a given time period. These data show the normal seasonal changes that occur in the economy. Most county unemployment rates are higher in the winter months because of seasonal job losses in construction, leisure & hospitality, and many other sectors. Similarly, most county unemployment rates are lower in the summer months as employment increases across the economy. Data users should use caution when comparing not seasonally adjusted data for different months, as at least part of the difference between months may reflect normal seasonal patterns.

In contrast, seasonally adjusted data have been subjected to a statistical procedure to remove the effects of normal changes that occur in the economy each year, such as seasonal hiring in the construction sector, the opening and closing of schools, and holiday hiring by retail trade establishments. There is no expectation that seasonally adjusted unemployment rates will be higher or lower in any particular month, except as the economy expands or contracts. The value of seasonally adjusted data is that it is easy to identify longer-term trends in the data and valid comparisons can be made between any two months in the series.

Research & Planning works in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to develop and publish unemployment rates for each county in Wyoming. However, these data are not seasonally adjusted and therefore reflect seasonal changes each month.


Table 1: Wyoming counties not seasonally adjusted unemployment 
rates ranked from lowest to highest for October 2016

     County                           Rate*  
Albany County, WY                       2.8
Niobrara County, WY                     2.9
Goshen County, WY                       3.0
Teton County, WY                        3.0
Lincoln County, WY                      3.6
Laramie County, WY                      3.8
Sheridan County, WY                     3.8
Washakie County, WY                     3.8
Big Horn County, WY                     3.9
Park County, WY                         3.9
Carbon County, WY                       4.0
Crook County, WY                        4.0
Platte County, WY                       4.0
Johnson County, WY                      4.3
Hot Springs County, WY                  4.4
Weston County, WY                       4.6
Wyoming                                 4.6
Uinta County, WY                        5.0
Converse County, WY                     5.3
Sublette County, WY                     5.3
Sweetwater County, WY                   5.3
Fremont County, WY                      6.1
Campbell County, WY                     6.3
Natrona County, WY                      6.3

*preliminary




Table 2: Wyoming counties not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates over-the-month rate
changes ranked from lowest to highest for October 2016

                                Month ago 		       Over-the-Month    Over-the-Month
    County                         rate             Rate*       Rate Change       Percent Change
Campbell County, WY                6.9               6.3              -0.6             -8.7%
Converse County, WY                5.6               5.3              -0.3             -5.4%
Fremont County, WY                 6.4               6.1              -0.3             -4.7%
Natrona County, WY                 6.6               6.3              -0.3             -4.5%
Lincoln County, WY                 3.8               3.6              -0.2             -5.3%
Sweetwater County, WY              5.5               5.3              -0.2             -3.6%
Niobrara County, WY                3.0               2.9              -0.1             -3.3%
Sublette County, WY                5.4               5.3              -0.1             -1.9%
Uinta County, WY                   5.1               5.0              -0.1             -2.0%
Weston County, WY                  4.7               4.6              -0.1             -2.1%
Wyoming                            4.7               4.6              -0.1             -2.1%
Albany County, WY                  2.8               2.8               0.0              0.0%
Crook County, WY                   4.0               4.0               0.0              0.0%
Goshen County, WY                  3.0               3.0               0.0              0.0%
Hot Springs County, WY             4.4               4.4               0.0              0.0%
Platte County, WY                  4.0               4.0               0.0              0.0%
Sheridan County, WY                3.8               3.8               0.0              0.0%
Washakie County, WY                3.8               3.8               0.0              0.0%
Big Horn County, WY                3.8               3.9               0.1              2.6%
Carbon County, WY                  3.9               4.0               0.1              2.6%
Laramie County, WY                 3.7               3.8               0.1              2.7%
Johnson County, WY                 4.1               4.3               0.2              4.9%
Park County, WY                    3.6               3.9               0.3              8.3%
Teton County, WY                   2.0               3.0               1.0             50.0%

*preliminary






Table 3: Wyoming counties not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates over-the-year percent 
changes ranked from lowest to highest for October 2016
                                 Year ago                     Over-the-Year     Over-the-Year
   County                          Rate          Rate*          Rate Change     Percent Change
Teton County, WY                    3.8          3.0               -0.8             -21.1%
Lincoln County, WY                  4.1          3.6               -0.5             -12.2%
Albany County, WY                   2.8          2.8                0.0               0.0%
Big Horn County, WY                 3.9          3.9                0.0               0.0%
Goshen County, WY                   3.0          3.0                0.0               0.0%
Niobrara County, WY                 2.9          2.9                0.0               0.0%
Sheridan County, WY                 3.7          3.8                0.1               2.7%
Laramie County, WY                  3.6          3.8                0.2               5.6%
Park County, WY                     3.7          3.9                0.2               5.4%
Platte County, WY                   3.7          4.0                0.3               8.1%
Uinta County, WY                    4.7          5.0                0.3               6.4%
Johnson County, WY                  3.9          4.3                0.4              10.3%
Washakie County, WY                 3.3          3.8                0.5              15.2%
Hot Springs County, WY              3.8          4.4                0.6              15.8%
Sublette County, WY                 4.7          5.3                0.6              12.8%
Carbon County, WY                   3.3          4.0                0.7              21.2%
Wyoming                             3.9          4.6                0.7              17.9%
Sweetwater County, WY               4.4          5.3                0.9              20.5%
Crook County, WY                    3.0          4.0                1.0              33.3%
Fremont County, WY                  4.9          6.1                1.2              24.5%
Natrona County, WY                  4.8          6.3                1.5              31.3%
Weston County, WY                   3.1          4.6                1.5              48.4%
Converse County, WY                 3.4          5.3                1.9              55.9%
Campbell County, WY                 3.8          6.3                2.5              65.8%

*preliminary





Wyoming Department of Workforce Services
Research & Planning

November 22, 2016

Contacts:

David Bullard, Senior Economist, 307-473-3810

Carola Cowan, BLS Programs Supervisor, 307-473-3804


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