Many rumors have been coming out of Washington, D.C. lately. Among these rumors are those dealing with increasing the federal minimum wage from $4.25 to $5.25 an hour. No matter the amount of the minimum wage increase, there is good reason to believe that Congress will debate this issue. A question we at Research & Planning (R&P) are sure to be asked is what effect a $5.25 minimum wage would have on Wyoming?

Until recently, R&P had no way to estimate the effects. We generally knew what occupations and industries paid minimum wage but after that we knew very little. Because we lacked first hand data we had to rely on national numbers to somehow guess at Wyoming's minimum wage effects. Often we would find that national numbers did not fit our intuitive knowledge of the state.

Lack of first hand data has now changed, because of two on-going projects in R&P. The first project is the Occupational Wage Survey (OWS) and the second is based on administrative records called "Wage Records" (WR).

Occupational wage survey is a process R&P has been working on for the past two years. In fact, the December 1994 issue of Wyoming Labor Force Trends contains a summary of our first two survey rounds. The OWS's goal is to survey businesses to find the average hourly wage by occupation for Wyoming. Each year a sample is randomly selected from unemployment insurance covered employers across the state.

Based on employer responses, we compiled descriptive statistics for over two hundred occupations. These occupations include: professional, technical (P&T); and sales, clerical, and service occupations (SC&S). Wages for agriculture, forestry, construction, and operator occupations will be published in August 1995. A quick query into the SC&S survey for both full- time and part-time employees shows the following occupations with minimum wage of $4.25 per hour.

OES	OES OCCUPATIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY RAISING THE MINIMUM WAGE
41002	FIRST LINE SUPERVISORS AND MANAGER/SUPERVISORS- SALES AND RELATED OCCUPATIONS
43002	SALES AGENTS AND PLACERS; INSURANCE
49008	SALES REPRESENTATIVES; EXCEPT SCIENTIFIC AND RELATED PRODUCTS OR SERVICES AND RETAIL
49011	SALESPERSONS; RETAIL
49014	SALESPERSONS; PARTS
49017	COUNTER AND RENTAL CLERKS
49021	STOCK CLERKS; SALES FLOOR
49023	CASHIERS
51002	FIRST LINE SUPERVISORS AND MANAGER/SUPERVISORS- CLERICAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT OCCUPATIONS
53808	HOTEL DESK CLERKS
53905	TEACHER AIDES AND EDUCATIONAL ASSISTANTS; CLERICAL
55102	LEGAL SECRETARIES
55108	SECRETARIES; EXCEPT LEGAL AND MEDICAL
55305	RECEPTIONISTS AND INFORMATION CLERKS
55338	BOOKKEEPING; ACCOUNTING; AND AUDITING CLERKS
55347	GENERAL OFFICE CLERKS
57102	SWITCHBOARD OPERATORS
58023	STOCK CLERKS- STOCKROOM; WAREHOUSE OR STORAGE YARD
58026	ORDER FILLERS; WHOLESALE AND RETAIL SALES
58028	SHIPPING; RECEIVING; AND TRAFFIC CLERKS
61008	HOUSEKEEPERS
63047	GUARDS AND WATCH GUARDS
65002	HOSTS AND HOSTESSES- RESTAURANT; LOUNGE OR COFFEE SHOP
65005	BARTENDERS
65008	WAITERS AND WAITRESSES
65014	DINING ROOM AND CAFETERIA ATTENDANTS; AND BARTENDER HELPERS
65017	COUNTER ATTENDANTS- LUNCHROOM; COFFEE SHOP; OR CAFETERIA
65026	COOKS; RESTAURANT
65028	COOKS; INSTITUTION OR CAFETERIA
65032	COOKS; SPECIALTY FAST FOOD
65035	COOKS; SHORT ORDER
65038	FOOD PREPARATION WORKERS
65041	COMBINED FOOD PREPARATION AND SERVICE WORKERS
67002	MAIDS AND HOUSEKEEPING CLEANERS
67005	JANITORS AND CLEANERS; EXCEPT MAIDS AND HOUSEKEEPING CLEANERS
68005	HAIRDRESSERS; HAIRSTYLISTS; AND COSMETOLOGISTS
68014	AMUSEMENT AND RECREATION ATTENDANTS
68038	CHILD CARE WORKERS

Now that we know what occupations would be affected by a minimum wage increase, it would be nice to know how many people in Wyoming make the minimum wage. To begin to answer that question we turn to the wage record file.

The wage record file is an administrative database used for evaluating claims to unemployment insurance (UI). Each quarter, by law, employers must submit reports to the Department of Employment showing quarterly wages for each of their UI covered employees. Typically UI covers over 80 percent of the estimated civilian labor force in Wyoming.

Even with the vast coverage of wage records, some assumptions must be made to get at the data. First, we are unable to directly identify workers who make $4.25 per hour or less. We are unable to directly identify these people because the employer is not legally responsible to report hours worked each quarter along with wages. Second, the wages are reported in a quarterly total. That is, we know how much each person makes each quarter not each hour, week, or month. So, we are left to apply standards to each wage record which, hopefully, make some sense and would include our target group.

Therefore, our criteria for selecting candidates for wage record analysis, focusing on 1st quarter 1994, is summarized in the following way:

Therefore, on an annual basis employers would be expected to pay out over 30 million in additional wages to bring up workers to $5.25 per hour. This could potentially increase Wyoming's UI covered total wages by 3 percent or higher. Depending on your views of the issue, it could also be said that an additional 30 million dollars would then be circulating in the economy by consumers.

If there is a minimum wage increase in Wyoming's future, it will definitely have an impact on both employers and employees. Hopefully this data will help make policy decisions easier to understand.

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