INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS 1993 - 1996

Jobs? What kind of jobs, and where are they? In researching the answers to these and other questions, the Research & Planning Section of Wyoming's Department of Employment has projected that between 1993-1996 Wyoming's service-producing industries are expected to add 10,261 out of a total 12,028 new jobs. The jobs are expected to be concentrated in retail trade (10.3% growth) and services (10.1% growth). The remaining jobs are expected to be in the goods-producing, construction industry--11.7% growth.

The service-producing industry increase represents 85.3% of available new jobs. With the 1993 annual average salary for service-producing industries at $16,488 (all salary figures derived from 1993 Annual Covered Employment and Wages, ES-202, data), if the projections hold true, Wyoming citizens will face an increasing number of relatively low paying jobs.

Where does labor market information come from? How are industry and employment projections made? To plan for the future, we must to know where we currently are, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program provides this crucial information.

Nationwide, current economic conditions are regularly and systematically studied and analyzed by the individual states. Relying on voluntary cooperation of employers statewide, every month Wyoming's CES program samples over 3,600 (nonfarm) business establishments. Estimates from this sample are published monthly in Wyoming Labor Force TRENDS. By evaluating the data collected and using it in conjunction with other databases, a statistically valid "picture" of Wyoming's present economic conditions emerges.

Using time series analysis, information about the present is used to make projections describing expected, future labor market conditions. It is important to realize that economic projections are based on the assumption that past conditions will continue into the future. That is, the economy's momentum will not change. Thus, projections are expected conditions which should occur as long as the status quo continues. This way of viewing the future means that such events as national disasters, floods, major crop failures, massive in-migration, or unusual/unexpected interest rate changes can alter that future. In spite of limitations, the basic time series analytical model has proven itself to be an effective and useful tool especially when the consumer uses it in conjunction with personal knowledge and business expertise.

Time series data represent measurements sequentially taken over a fixed time period, i.e. a monthly count of the number of employees at a business over a three year period. These measurements or factors provide information about long-term trends, business cycles, seasonal fluctuations, and random variation or measurement error. By using standard, accepted statistical methods to analyze time series data, reliable information about current and near- future conditions is obtained.

Using 1988-1993, time series employment data, economic projections for 1993-1996 Wyoming goods-producing and service-producing industries have been calculated. (Presented in Table 1.)

GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES: Reviewing the business groups comprising Wyoming's goods-producing industries, construction and manufacturing are expected to add 1,767 jobs during 1993-1996 (589 jobs per year). Mining is expected to lose 149 jobs (roughly 50 jobs per year) over the 3-year period. This net increase of 1,618 jobs in the goods-producing industries represents 14.7% of all new jobs projected for Wyoming during 1993-1996.

Mining: Overall, the Wyoming mining industry is expected to experience an employment decline. In 1993, the mining industry had an annual average of 17,728 employees making an annual average salary of $41,552. In 1996, it is expected there will be 17,579 employees--a 3-year loss of 149 jobs for the industry as a whole. However, the mining industry is composed of several discrete, industrial groups, and although nearly all are expected to experience an employment decline, the nonmetallic minerals group is expected to grow. In this instance, during 1993-1996 it is projected this group will add 144 new jobs--a 3.8% increase.

Construction: Growing from 12,277 jobs in 1993 with an average annual salary of $23,099, the construction industry is projected to grow to 13,712 jobs by 1996. This 3-year increase of 1,435 jobs represents 11.7% growth and is expected in: general building contractors (1,304 positions--44.1% increase) and the special trade contractors (1,038 positions--18.3% increase). However, this growth is not expected to include heavy construction (excludes building), projected to show a 3-year loss of 907 jobs (24.9% decrease).

Manufacturing: Overall, Wyoming's manufacturing industry is projected to grow from 9,599 jobs in 1993 when the average annual salary was $25,860 to 9,931 jobs in 1996. These 332 new jobs represent a 3.5% increase.

SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES: Reviewing the business groups comprising Wyoming's service-producing industries, transportation; wholesale trade; retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate (referred to as FIRE); services; state and local governments are expected to grow during 1993-1996. These industries are expected to add 10,261 jobs, representing 85.3% of all new jobs projected for Wyoming during 1993-1996. Only public utilities and the federal government are expected to see employment decreases.

Retail Trade: Having a 1993 annual average salary of $11,504, the retail trade industry is projected to grow 10.3% during 1993-1996. Within the industry, several groups are expected to show even faster growth rates. Gasoline service stations had a 1993 annual average salary of $11,202 and are expected to add 784 jobs--20.7% increase. Eating and drinking places had a 1993 annual average salary of $7,240 and are expected to add 2,354 jobs--14.9% increase.

Services: During 1993-1996 the services industry is projected to grow 10.1% representing 4,347 jobs. In 1993 the industry's annual average salary was $16,488; the top five service industry growth areas have been identified. Social services had a 1993 annual average salary of $ 11,651 and are expected to add 1,495 jobs-- 34.1% increase. Engineering and management services had a 1993 annual average salary of $ 28,665 and are expected to add 616 jobs- -22.8% increase. Nursing and personal care facilities had a 1993 annual average salary of $13,316 and are expected to add 484 jobs-- 21.1% increase. Business services had a 1993 annual average salary of $14,182 and are expected to add 489 jobs--10.8% increase. Personal services had a 1993 annual average salary of $10,407 and are expected to add 168 jobs--9.2% increase.

State Government: Wyoming State Government employees had a 1993 annual average salary of $23,705. State Government is projected to add 255 jobs during 1993-1996 (1.8% increase). This growth predominantly results from employment increases in education (327 jobs--6.2% increase)--1993 annual average salary was $24,772.

Local Government: Wyoming local government employees had a 1993 annual average salary of $20,995. Local government is projected to add 933 jobs during 1993-1996 (2.6% increase). The greatest increase is expected in local government hospitals (1993 annual average salary was $21,300) adding 283 jobs--5.9% increase. Local government-run hospitals are relatively unique to Wyoming, and it is thought their operation probably reflects the rural environment, sparse population, expenses involved in attracting and retaining trained, medical personnel, etc. Other local government growth areas include: education (1993 annual average salary was $22,276) adding 408 jobs--2.1% increase, and other local government activities adding 242 jobs--2.1% increase.

The 1993-1996 Wyoming Industry Projections indicate that although both the goods-producing and service-producing industries are expected to see new job opportunities, most of the growth is anticipated to be in the service-producing industries. If projections hold true, given the typical wages for this industry, Wyoming citizens will face an increasing number of relatively low paying jobs.

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