Slow and steady population growth is expected throughout the ten-year forecast period. Total population in Wyoming is expected to increase less than 2,200 persons per year with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.5 percent. Out-migration is forecast to surpass in-migration based on the assumption that the Wyoming economy will continue to be outperformed by other states in the west and south. However, net out-migration is reduced to 700 persons in 1999 and averages approximately 300 each year for the remainder of the forecast period.
Labor force is the sum of the number of employed and unemployed persons. As seen in Table 16, the labor force is expected to increase 7.5 percent during the ten-year forecast period. Labor force levels are expected to rise from an estimated 260,870 in 1999 to a projected 280,530 in 2008. This represents an increase of 19,660 individuals who are either working or available and looking for work.
The number of persons employed in Wyoming is forecast to increase by 6.3 percent from 1999 to 2008, reaching 264,460 persons. The number of unemployed persons in Wyoming is expected to increase by almost one-third from 12,080 in 1999 to 16,070 in 2008. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly from 4.6 percent in 1999 to 5.7 percent in 2008.
Population growth in Wyoming since 1995 has been largely a function of the number of births being greater than the number of deaths. Between 1995 and 1998, growth averaged less than 0.2 percent and fell by 0.1 percent to 479,602 in 1999.1
Population change is a function of three processes: births, deaths, and migration. This involves births "into" a population, deaths "from" a population, and migration either into (net in-migration) or out of (net out-migration) a population. Both births and deaths are biological and physiological processes. However, migration is most often a direct result of processes such as employment, income, and other socioeconomic opportunities. The impact from the process of natural increase (combined effects of births and deaths) is usually long term in the areas of employment, housing, and the demand for goods and services. On the other hand, migration tends to have immediate impacts, reducing demand with net out-migration and creating demand with net in-migration.
The level of migration tends to change according to the local economic conditions with migration occurring most often among young adults, among persons with higher educational attainment, higher income, and greater socioeconomic resources.
Both in-migration and out-migration numbers were slightly over 20,000 annually for the state in recent years. In the early 1990's, the national economy was performing poorly, as was the economy in California due partially to the cut backs in the defense industry. Thus, many Californians relocated to neighboring states and in the Rocky Mountains.2 As a result, the population in Wyoming grew more than 1.0 percent each year from 1991 to 1994. Annual net in-migration exceeded 2,000 persons during these years. However, as the overall economy for the nation, and California’s economy, became stronger, Californian out-migrants diminished. Net in-migration (in-migration minus out-migration) to Wyoming from California amounted to only 111 persons during the period of 1996-1997, compared to the 1993-1994 level of 1,820. Wyoming experienced net out-migration after 1995, increasing to over 2,500 in 1997. These out-migrants moved mainly to western states (Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, and Texas)3 whose economies were growing faster than Wyoming's.
Net migration is forecast as negative each year from 1999 to 2008 (see Table 17). This means that the number of people who leave the state is expected to exceed the number of people who move to Wyoming. Out-migration flows slow over the ten-year projection period. Table 17 shows a net migration of -2,680 people in 1997, but net out-migration is expected to decrease gradually to -100 persons in 2008.
Generally, when a state's economic conditions are less favorable than other nearby states, net out-migration occurs. This is because people tend to move where employment opportunities are best (employment growth is highest and unemployment rates are lowest). Some readers may wonder how total population can continue to increase, when more people are moving out of the state than moving in. The answer lies in the fact that more people are born than die each year in Wyoming. The total number of newborn babies in the state ranged from 6,720 in 1992 to 6,248 in 1998. The number of deaths totaled 3,152 in 1991 and 3,847 in 1998.
Population age structure has profound implications for business leaders, planners, marketers, and public policy makers. The state has experienced a substantial decrease in the pre-school (age 0-4) group in the early 1990’s. However, this cohort is expected to grow by 0.7 percent annually throughout the forecast period, eventually reaching 34,070 persons by the year 2008. This is due to an increasing number of women in the middle childbearing years. The 5-19 year age group declined after 1996, resulting in the drop of K-12 school enrollments in the state from 100,899 in 1993 to 94,420 in 1998. This decline in school age population is expected to continue through 2006, dropping from the current level of 116,110 to 107,300 persons in 2006, and slowly increasing thereafter to 107,470 in 2008. Therefore, it is likely that Wyoming’s school enrollments will remain flat over the forecast horizon. The young adult group (age 20-24) expanded rapidly in the 1990’s, at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, to 35,790 persons in 1998. This group, children of those born between 1946 and 1964 (the baby boom), is expected to continue to increase during the earlier years of the forecast and start to taper off in 2004.
The main population cohort participating in the labor force (age 25-44) declined from 148,446 in 1990 to 134,480 persons in 1998 (see Figure 7). To a certain degree, out-migration contributed to the decline of this cohort. This age group is projected to continue declining through the forecast, as the baby boomers continue to age and are replaced in the cohort by generation “X.” The 25-44 age cohort is expected to fall to a level of 126,560 persons in 2008. The decline in this age segment could reduce the availability of labor.
The population ages 45-64 includes the early post-World War II baby boom. From 1990 to 1998, this group posted a remarkable increase of 36.0 percent, making it the most rapidly growing age group. By the year 2008, this age group is forecast to reach 134,100 persons. This represents an increase of 22.0 percent from the 1998 level.
Nationally and in Wyoming, the average age has been increasing for some time. In 1998, there were 55,560 residents age 65 and over in Wyoming. With an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent since 1990, this population cohort expanded much more rapidly than the total population. The growth rate in Wyoming was also higher than the national average of 1.4 percent for this population cohort. In the meantime, the proportion of persons age 65 and older in the state increased to 11.6 percent in 1998, slightly below the national average of 12.7 percent. Rapid growth for this cohort is projected to continue, reaching 65,970 persons by 2008. This represents a growth of 18.7 percent over the forecast period. The age 65 and older cohort will increase to 13.1 percent of total population in 2008, from 11.6 percent in 1998.
Increases in life expectancy contributed to the growth of the older population, especially those at the oldest ages. A more numerous older population will greatly impact many areas of our economy, from the labor supply to demand for health and social services. Those aged 65 and over at the end of the forecast will be better educated, expect to live longer, and be healthier. If the unemployment rate in Wyoming remains moderately low as forecasted, combined with continued net out-migration, should result in increased employment opportunities in Wyoming for experienced people in this age group.
Slow and steady population growth is expected throughout the ten-year forecast period (see Figure 8). Total population in Wyoming is expected to increase less than 2,200 persons per year, with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.5 percent. An out-migration is forecast to surpass in-migration based on the assumption that the Wyoming economy will continue to be outperformed by other states in the west and south. However, net out-migration is reduced to 700 persons in 1999, and averages approximately 300 each year for the remainder of the forecast period.
Labor supply is based upon the decisions individuals make about whether or not to participate in the labor force, that is whether or not to look for paid employment. In addition, population growth and migration impact the labor supply. People decide if they wish to seek work in the local market, move elsewhere for better opportunities, or to not actively seek work.
Labor force is the sum of the number of employed and unemployed persons. As seen in Table 16, the labor force is expected to increase 7.5 percent during the ten-year forecast period. Labor force levels are expected to rise from an estimated 260,870 in 1999 to a projected 280,530 in 2008. This represents an increase of 19,660 individuals who are either working, or available and looking for work. At least two factors help explain the increase in labor force: population and participation rate.
First, Wyoming's population is projected to increase by 4.3 percent or 20,830 people by 2008. Second, due to increased labor force participation by women, overall labor force participation will increase. Labor force participation is defined as the percentage of the working-age population employed or looking for work. For the past 20 years, labor force participation rates in Wyoming4 exceeded the national level. Wyoming’s high participation rate may be related to high levels of educational attainment and numerous opportunities for agricultural self-employment.
Number of Employed Persons in Wyoming
The number of persons employed in Wyoming is forecast to increase by 6.3 percent over the next ten years. Table 2 shows that while the number of employed persons increases by 22,560 individuals, nonagricultural wage and salary employment increases by 27,450 jobs. In other words, the number of nonagricultural wage and salary jobs will grow much faster than the number of employed persons in Wyoming (11.4% compared to 6.3%). There are several possible explanations for this apparent anomaly.
First, the number of employed is based on place of residence; that is, only Wyoming residents are included, while nonagricultural wage and salary employment is based on place of work. Three out of four jobs created by 2008 will be in the Services and Retail Trade sectors. Employment in these sectors includes large numbers of seasonal jobs. We expect that many of these jobs will be held by non-residents.
Part of the difference can be explained by interstate commuting patterns, where more residents of other states commute to work in Wyoming. The Census 2000 will allow us to measure how interstate commuting has changed since 1990. Some analysts suggest that the fast employment growth in Teton County has resulted in increased commuting from Idaho. Unemployment Insurance (UI) covered employment in Teton County increased 36.5 percent from 1990 to 1997, but population grew at a slower rate of 26.8 percent. Just across the border in Idaho's Teton County, population grew by 59.6 percent from 1990 to 1998, leading some analysts to suggest that a large part of these 2,049 new residents may be working in Wyoming. Other examples of interstate commuting exist in the Cheyenne and Evanston areas. Evanston’s proximity to the expanding labor markets of Salt Lake City-Park City provides ample opportunity for Wyoming residents to take advantage of work in Utah. In addition, commuting to and from Cheyenne and the Denver-Boulder-Greeley-Ft. Collins area occurs daily in both directions. Thus, increased interstate commuting is likely a partial explanation for the differing growth rates of nonagricultural employment and the number of persons employed.
In summary, the number of employed persons is expected to grow at a slower rate than nonagricultural employment. This is due to increased commuting into Wyoming and increased multiple job holding.
Unemployed persons are those individuals actively seeking work, but not currently working. The number of unemployed persons in Wyoming in the 1990’s peaked at 13,639 in 1992. Since then, the number of unemployed persons fell to 12,361 in 1998. With the decline in the number of unemployed persons, the unemployment rate in Wyoming also dropped. The unemployment rate fell from 5.7 percent in 1992 to 4.8 percent in 1998. For the past four years, the unemployment rate has remained between 4.8 and 5.1 percent.
The number of unemployed persons in Wyoming is expected to increase by almost one-third from 12,080 in 1999 to 16,070 in 2008. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly from 4.6 percent in 1999 to 5.7 percent in 2008. Part of this increase can be related to the different industry growth rates (see Table 18). Workers in some sectors have a greater likelihood of losing their jobs on a seasonal basis than the average for all sectors. With a higher proportion of total employment in the "high seasonal layoff" sectors, overall unemployment is expected to increase. Construction, Retail Trade, and Services are forecast to grow faster than average and are "high seasonal layoff" sectors. These three sectors will account for 82.0 percent of all the new jobs through 2008. Conversely, Government and TCPU are expected to grow much slower than average and are typically "low seasonal layoff" sectors.
Construction employment will increase 13.8 percent, while total nonagricultural employment increases 11.4 percent during the forecast period 1998 to 2008. Construction work in Wyoming is highly seasonal. Cold winter weather makes many construction projects difficult or impossible in the first and fourth quarters, leaving many construction workers unemployed in the winter months.
Similarly, employment in the tourism industry tends to be seasonal.5 Employment in the Services sector is expected to grow 23.7 percent, and Retail Trade is expected to grow 15.1 percent. Due to a higher proportion of the work force employed in seasonal industries, average unemployment is expected to grow.
The projections show Government employment increasing a meager 3.5 percent over the ten-year forecast period. Government employment tends to be more stable and government employees typically face a smaller chance of seasonal job loss than employees in other industries. Therefore, a smaller proportion of employment in Government tends to increase unemployment.
Finally, employment in the TCPU sector is expected to decrease over the next ten years in both absolute and relative terms. Specifically, TCPU is forecast to lose 80 jobs in 2001, 90 jobs in 2003, and 180 jobs in 2006. A decline in the relative importance of jobs with low seasonal unemployment increases the overall rate of unemployment during the forecast period.
2 Phil Brooks and Mike Evans, "Population Migration Flows Among the Mountain & Plains States," Wyoming Labor Force Trends.
3 "1997-1998 State to State Migration Flows: Inflow to and Outflow from Wyoming," Wyoming State Data Center Bulletin X, no. 2 (July 1999) and David Bullard, "Explaining Employment Growth in 20 Western States," Wyoming Labor Force Trends.
4 David Bullard, "Wyoming's Labor Force Participation Rate: What does it imply about Labor Supply in the State?" Wyoming Labor Force Trends.
5 The tourism industry is not broken out separately. However, most employment in the tourism industry is found in the Services and Retail Trade sectors.
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Labor Market Information |
Economic Analysis Division
1 U.S. Bureau of Census, Population Division, Population Estimates Program, "Resident Population and Component Change of U.S. and States: 1990 to 1998," Census Bureau Publication ST-98-3, (December 1998).