The national forecast was provided by Regional Financial Associates (RFA) to the Division of Economic Analysis in June of 1999. In addition, we compared the assumptions and results of the RFA forecast with one from Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute released in January of 1999. Both forecasts projected similar growth paths for the national economy.
The forecasting process began with two employment by industry forecasts, one from EAD and one from R&P. An econometric model was used by EAD to construct its employment forecasts, while the forecasts from R&P were constructed using time series analysis. The two forecasts were examined by EAD and R&P analysts. After careful review, a "best" forecast for each industry was chosen from the two methodologies. Estimates for job growth were finalized in November, 1999. Job growth in 1999 actually occurred at a higher level than our estimates but should not change the overall trend to 2008.
Once the employment forecast was agreed upon, the employment variables were set as exogenous in the EAD econometric model which was then used to generate the income, GSP, and population forecasts. One interpretation of the decrease in out-migration is Wyoming's economic performance will improve relative to other states over the ten-year projection period, while another interpretation is that older people are least likely to migrate and the population is aging. These forecasts were further reviewed by EAD and R&P analysts, and some minor adjustments made to these forecasts.
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