© Copyright 2003 by the Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning

Occupational Projections -- A Decision-Making Tool

by: Mark A. Harris, Ph.D., Sociologist

figure by: Sylvia D. Jones, Statistical and Research Analyst

"It is important that growth in Wyoming take place in underrepresented high-wage industries that are not so closely tied to mineral commodities."

The following article is an excerpt from Research & Planning’s upcoming occupational 
projections publication, Occupational Outlook: 2010. The publication examines 
short- and long-term employment projections for specific occupations through 2010. Included in the publication are the 25 occupations with the highest projected growth that pay a living wage. An analysis of industry turnover rates as applied to occupational categories studies potential replacement need. Also included are data on occupational projections for nurses. The data provide a case study and measure of both projected turnover in nursing as well as the change in demand.

Employment projections, in large part, reflect a continuation of past trends. Past trends, although important, are not necessarily deterministic of future employment levels. Projections by themselves can affect the future by stimulating thought and discussion on the likelihood and alterability of the baseline forecast. 

Among other factors, significant social effort may alter undesirable projected employment trends. For example, concerted effort in developing well-paying industries and their associated occupations, and providing qualified applicants for those positions may change the projected outcomes. Thus, even occupations projected to decline by time series methods may actually experience growth over the projected timeline.¹ Additionally, we cannot completely predict how the development of, as yet unknown, technology will create, eliminate, reduce, or expand occupational categories.² 

Policy makers and developers need not feel constrained from pursuing increased employment in high-wage, high-skill occupations regardless of whether projections indicate future growth. If policy makers are to achieve the goal “...to diversify and strengthen Wyoming’s per capita income and job creation base,”³ they will need to break with past trends and alter projected outcomes.

Wyoming’s Economy in Broad Context

With the exception of a downturn during mid-decade, Wyoming’s employment and population grew slowly during the 1990s while the nation was experiencing the most impressive 10-year period of economic growth in its history. Evidence would seem to indicate, therefore, that Wyoming’s economy can grow (albeit in a limited manner) within the context of stiff external competition. 

However, during this period of relatively slow growth in Wyoming a significant segment of younger workers (25 to 39) left Wyoming presumably in pursuit of more attractive economic opportunities.⁴ The decrease in this demographic segment may affect employee shortages in Wyoming as older workers reach retirement age over the coming decades. Such shortages may hinder economic development if individuals age 25 to 39 cannot be retained or attracted back into the state. 

Generally speaking, Wyoming’s economy is more strongly tied to circumstances surrounding the worldwide mineral commodities market than to national economic developments. Given that Wyoming’s Mining employment is proportionately overrepresented relative to the rest of the nation,⁵ the economy is vulnerable to swings in commodities prices and global price competition. When the U.S. is doing well, the state has more economic difficulties. Because of stiff external competition, workers tend to disproportionately leave the state to take advantage of more promising opportunities elsewhere.

The Link Between Occupational Growth and Industry

Occupational growth in Wyoming will always be defined by industry growth. For example, the state will not increase the number of electrical engineers unless growth takes place in industries that typically employ electrical engineers. Growth in high-wage, full-time employment providing insurance and retirement benefits will not take place in the state unless firms in industries that typically provide these types of jobs also increase. Economic development must first and foremost be industry directed in order to obtain desired occupational growth.

Unfortunately, over the last decade the norm in Wyoming has been growth in industries with a general concentration of low-wage occupations⁶ that provide limited or no benefits⁷ and typified by short employment tenure and high employee turnover.⁸ As seen in the Figure, the proportion of transitional employment increased from 1993 to 2000 and, left unchecked, is projected to continue through 2010. Transitional employees begin or end (or both) employment during a given quarter. Such high turnover is associated with industries generally offering part-time opportunities, typified by low wages and fewer benefits. Failure to halt or reverse this trend means these types of jobs will comprise a larger share of the state’s occupational distribution and must be relied upon more heavily by those wanting to remain in Wyoming. 

From both a sociological and economic standpoint this situation is problematic because private charitable and public entities will need to pick up the slack created by low wages and a lack of benefits among a growing portion of the population. Communities will increasingly be threatened with social disorder and decay because of low wages and high employee turnover. 

Failure to infuse the economy with high-wage, full-time occupations means that individuals who become skilled through the state’s workforce development system (i.e., K-12, community colleges, the University of Wyoming, and other training entities and programs) will encounter the dilemma of limited occupational opportunity in the state. In the coming years these workers may face the decision whether to accept an occupation for which they are overqualified or leave the state in search of better opportunities elsewhere. It is unlikely that emerging or skilled labor would accept low-wage, unstable employment in Wyoming when quality employment opportunities exist in the regional or national economy.

A Window of Opportunity

The current national recession and weakened regional economies of bordering states appear to provide a window of opportunity to expand Wyoming’s economy through the retention of young people and in-migration of former and new residents. It is important that growth in Wyoming take place in underrepresented high-wage industries that are not so closely tied to mineral commodities.⁹ This type of growth will help the state become less vulnerable to worldwide developments and more competitive even during times when the national and regional economies are strong. This does not mean that proportionately overrepresented industries (e.g., Mining in particular) cannot also continue to grow (even at fairly expansive rates) but only that growth among underrepresented industries and their associated occupations must take place at a faster rate. Proportional redistribution of Wyoming’s industry and occupational employment base will help protect the economy from the instability that comes from an underdiversified economic base and better position Wyoming to retain its skilled workforce when the national and surrounding regional economies rebound.

¹Even occupations that experience a decline in absolute numbers over time may still offer new employment opportunities due to replacement need caused by various factors such as retirement. For example, absolute employment in Production Occupations may decline from 10,000 to 9,000, representing a net loss of 1,000 jobs over the period. However, if 5,000 of the original 10,000 retire there will still be 4,000 jobs to fill at some point during the forecast period. 

²One would assume that a workforce with broad competencies in mathematics and science provide the safest skill set with which to adjust and adapt to the way occupations react to new technology. However, Wyoming is unlikely to maintain a highly skilled but underutilized and underpaid workforce in the face of robust regional and national economic competition.

³Wyoming Department of Workforce Services, Wyoming Unified Plan, p. 13.

⁴Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning, Employment Outlook: 2010, Chapter 3, pp. 41-46. <http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/outlTOC.htm>.

⁵Mark Harris, “Is Wyoming’s Economy Diversifying and Is Economic Diversity in Wyoming Desirable?” Wyoming Labor Force Trends, September 2002, pp. 1-9. <http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/0902/toc.htm>.

⁶Mark Harris, “Is Wyoming’s Economy Diversifying and Is Economic Diversity in Wyoming Desirable?” Wyoming Labor Force Trends, September 2002, pp. 1-9. <http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/0902/toc.htm>. See also, Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning, Employment Outlook: 2010, <http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/outlTOC.htm>.

⁷Mark Harris, “Who Has Access to Employer-Provided Benefits in Wyoming?” Wyoming Labor Force Trends, February 2003, pp. 1-9. <http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/0203/toc.htm>. See also, Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning, Employee Benefits in Wyoming: 2001 <http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/benefits/2001BenefitsPub/Ben2001toc.htm>.

⁸Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning, Market Dynamics from Administrative Records, December 2002. <http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/w_r_research/MarketDynamics1202.pdf>.

⁹Mark Harris, “Identifying Potential Living-Wage Employment Growth Opportunities in Wyoming,” Wyoming Labor Force Trends, May 2003, pp. 1-12. See also, Deana Hauf and Craig Radden Henderson, “Comparing Employment Distributions Among 22 Major Occupational Groups for the U.S., Wyoming, and Bordering States,” Wyoming Labor Force Trends, June 2003, pp. 1-8.

Occupational Outlook: 2010 is due for release later this summer. To receive a copy, contact Research & Planning at (307) 473-3808 or send an e-mail to kshink@state.wy.us.

Occupational Outlook: 2010, is a companion to Employment Outlook: 2010. Employment Outlook: 2010 reports industry projections for Wyoming and its sub-state areas. It is available on Research & Planning’s website at <http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/EmpOutlook2010.pdf>.

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