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Copyright 1993 by the Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning


What's Happening the Nation

Total Nonfarm +156,000

September 1993

Total Private +85,000


Moderate job growth returned in September, with widespread but relatively small gains in all divisions but manufacturing. Even in factories, the losses slowed considerably. Services are really stronger than the figures indicate because some large declines, after seasonal adjustment, reflect strength during spring and summer months. On the other hand, the large government increase also is primarily an artifact of seasonal aberrations and, taken together, the impacts largely cancel each other in the total nonfarm figures.
Impact on Other Economic Indicators: The Personal Income side of GDP should be down as the increase in employment is more than offset by declines and in hours (average hourly earnings are flat). Our impact on FRB’s Industrial Production Index will be negative due to a small decline in manufacturing aggregate hours. Our contribution to the Index of Leading Economic Indicators will be zero, as there was no change in the manufacturing workweek. Our data will have offsetting impacts on the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators due to the increase in employment along with the negative influence on personal income and industrial production.
MINING — Mining employment increased by 5,000 (0.8%), largely due to strikers returning to the payrolls in Metal Mining. The gain was the first since June, and only the second in the last thirty months.
COAL MINING — Coal remained flat this month, as the net level of strikers remained nearly constant at 16,500. Employment has not increased here since June 1990, and has now declined 37% since that time.
OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION— Oil and Gas increased for the sixth consecutive month, by 1,000 in September, due to strength in Oil and Gas Field Services (SIC 138). In adding 2,000 this month, Field Services has increased employment by 22,000 (13.8%) since its trough of June 1992, and has been the sole bright spot in the otherwise dismal Mining industry. Both Crude Petroleum (SIC 131) and Natural Gas Liquids (SIC 132) remained flat in September.
CONSTRUCTION — Construction employment remained nearly flat in September, increasing by 5,000 (0.1%). The trend in job growth has clearly moderated since earlier in the year, when employment increased by an average of 24,000 per month from January through May. Since June, the industry has added less than 5,000 jobs per month. Still, employment is 160,000 (3.4%) above its year-ago level, and has added back 18.5% of the jobs lost during the most recent industry downturn.
MANUFACTURING — Manufacturing employment declined for the seventh straight month in September shedding 18,000 jobs. Unlike in previous months, however, the majority of the losses occurred in Nondurable goods industries which fell by 15,000. Durable goods lost only 3,000 jobs in September, its best showing since February when it added employment. The losses in the nondurable industries occurred primarily in Food and kindred products (SIC 20), Apparel (SIC 23), and Printing and publishing (SIC 27). The nondurable goods industries lost 37,000 jobs during the third quarter, a slightly higher loss than the second quarter, and has lost 50,000 jobs this year. In the Durable goods industries small losses in Transportation equipment (SIC 379) and Instruments and related products (SIC 38) were partially offset by gains in Industrial Machinery (SIC 35). The durable goods industries lost 44,000 jobs in the third quarter, an improvement from the second quarter when the industries lost 133,000 jobs.
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES — TPU gained 12,000 jobs in September. This marks the first gain since February. TPU has lost an average of 5,000 jobs per month over the last six months. The gain was mainly in Transportation.
WHOLESALE TRADE — Wholesale trade gained a modest 4,000 in September, continuing its trend of sporadic increases and decreases. The abnormally large decreases of June and August, however, seem to be aberrations in the data and not the real trend. Wholesale has been averaging a gain of about 6,000 per month for the past year and the two unusual losses were the only ones during this time period.
RETAIL TRADE — All employment increased by 41,000 seasonally adjusted in September 1993. The largest increases occurred in General merchandise stores up 14,000, Automotive dealers and service stations up 7,000, Furniture and home furnishings stores up 5,000, and Eating and drinking places up 24,000. The largest declines occurred in Food stores down 6,000, Apparel and accessory stores down 3,000 and Misc. retail establishments down 7,000. All employment has increased for six consecutive months and eleven out of the past twelve months in Retail Trade. Employment is now 611,000 or 3 percent above the trough of December 1991. Eating and drinking places accounts for 428,000 or 70 percent of this increase.
FINANCE, INSURANCE, & REAL ESTATE — FIRE gained 10,000 jobs in September after losing 3,000 jobs in August. This is the sixth gain this year. The additional jobs were mainly added to Finance.
SERVICES — The increase of 26,000 in services in September was only one-quarter of the average gain of the preceding twelve months. The September weakness can be traced most of all to the amusement and recreation (SIC 79) and business services (SIC 73) industries, and to a lesser extent to private-sector education (SIC 82) and social services (SIC 83). The small gain in September was the lowest month-to-month change since a loss of 2,000 in February 1992. The sample for services at this closing was good, with 18 percent of the universe and 64 percent of the registered sample in. At August 1st closing, 17 percent of the universe and 58 percent of the registered sample was captured.
GOVERNMENT — Government employment grew by 71,000 in September. Most of the gain came in local government, as the seasonal expectation for an increase was exceeded due to the absence of summer jobs offsetting an increase in education.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT — Federal employment increased by 4,000 jobs, a second straight increase. Employment in this sector should exhibit declines soon due to the President’s desire for a reduction in force, which will be in the form of buyouts.
STATE GOVERNMENT — State government added 13,000 jobs in September. State employment has grown every month in 1993 except for June, and is up 60,000 over the year. State government education normally adds about 50 percent of its total fall buildup in September. The expectation for the buildup was slightly exceeded, as 7,000 seasonally adjusted jobs were added.
LOCAL GOVERNMENT — Local government employment rose by 54,000 in September, because the unadjusted increase exceeded the expectation. Since there were fewer extra summer jobs added in July and August (due to less funding) there was a smaller summer jobs decline in September to offset the normal seasonal increase in local government education. Seasonally adjusted increases of this magnitude are not unusual for September, as increases nearly as large or larger occurred in 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, and 1991. These large past increases were partially due to strength in education. This year, local education lost 1,000 jobs seasonally adjusted, although the unadjusted gain was the largest ever for September.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1st Release.


 
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Last modified on June 8, 2001 by Valerie A. Davis.