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Growth continued at a relatively strong pace for the current recovery period. Some caution is needed in interpreting the figures, however. Coal miners returning from strike account for 16,500 of the increase. Also, federal government gains are extra temporary postal workers hired just for the holiday rush, and some hires in air transportation probably also are only for the holiday period; these will be reversed in the January data. On the other hand, the 5-week period from the November to December reference weeks this year lead to capturing more construction layoffs than usual in the December data and, thus, the flat construction picture after seasonal adjustment. |
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The December industry employment data show continued improvement in a number of industries including construction-related manufacturing and wholesale trade industries, auto, and related manufacturing and trade industries, personnel supply, and finance. Declines continue, however, in defense-dependent manufacturing industries, textiles, and oil and gas extraction. Hospital employment has not increased for several months, and retail trade industries that do most of the holiday season hiring were very cautious in December. Although industry employment is looking up, many areas still are not participating in the improvement. Hours maintained their very high levels of November, but there was no further increase in December. Combined with only a 2 cent increase in hourly earnings, the overall industry picture for December is more subdued than the employment data alone suggest. |
| Impact on Other Economic Indicators: |
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The Personal Income side of GDP should be up moderately, due to gains in employment and earnings. Our impact on FRB’s Industrial Production Index will be flat reflecting no change in both manufacturing employment and hours. Our contribution to the Index of Leading Economic Indicators will be zero, due to the flat manufacturing workweek. Our data will have a moderately positive impact on the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators due to the increase in employment along with the positive influence on personal income. |
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MINING — Despite the fact that 16,500 striking coal miners returned to work in December, Mining managed a gain of only 9,000 jobs this month. This increase was the largest since August 1989, which marked the end of another large coal strike. With the coal strike that began in June now over, mining employment is still 9,000 (1.5%) below its December 1992 level. Most of this weakness has been in the Coal Mining industry. December’s payrolls, however, were restrained by losses in Oil and Gas Extraction.
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| COAL MINING — Employment in Coal Mining increased by 15,000 in December, as 16,500 strikers returned to work during the December survey week. Despite the gain, however, employment is still 9,000 (8%) lower than a year ago. Since reaching its last peak in June 1990, Coal Mining employment has declined by 40,000 (26.7%).
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| OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION — Oil and Gas Extraction continued its recent slide in December, falling by 5,000 (1.4%). December was this industry’s third consecutive decline, with losses now totaling 9,000 for the fourth quarter. This marked the worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 1992. After declining by 3,000 in November, the trend downwards accelerated in December as losses became widespread. Oil and Gas Field Services (SIC 138) dropped by 2,000, after losses of 3,000 and 1,000 in November and October, respectively. Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas (SIC 131) also declined by 2,000 in December, for its second consecutive loss. |
| CONSTRUCTION — Construction employment was virtually flat in December, declining by 1,000. The December loss comes after increases totaling 71,000, or 1.5 percent, in the previous two months. The construction industry has been unable to string three consecutive months of growth together during the recovery. The small decline in December can be partially explained by the timing of the December survey week, which was later than any of the past four years. However, the average increase of 15,000 over the last two months is similar to the average monthly increase of 17,000 over the year. The construction industry is now at its highest level since May 1991, which was two months after the official end of the recession. General building contractors (SIC 15) was the only component industry to add jobs, increasing by 5,000, again due to strength in residential building. Heavy construction (SIC 16) and Special trade contractors (SIC 17) combined to lose 10,000 jobs, with Highway and street construction (SIC 161) responsible for 6,000 of the loss. |
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MANUFACTURING — Manufacturing employment remained flat in December, adding only 2,000 jobs. A gain of 14,000 jobs in the durable goods industries was offset by a loss of 12,000 jobs in the nondurable industries. In the durable goods sector, seven of ten industries increased in December. Notable increases occurred in Electrical equipment (SIC 36) and Motor vehicles and equipment (SIC 371), while sizable declines were posted in the Aircraft and parts industry (SIC 372). This is the third consecutive month of increases in the durable goods industries, bringing the fourth quarter job gains to 53,000 . In the nondurable goods industries six of ten industries reported declines. Notable declines occurred in Food (SIC 20) and Apparel products (SIC 23). The nondurable good industries lost 14,000 jobs in the fourth quarter. |
| TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES — TPU added 13,000 jobs in December making for the fourth consecutive gain. All of the increase was in Transportation as Communications and Public Utilities remained static in December. |
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WHOLESALE TRADE — Wholesale trade ended 1993 by gaining 10,000 jobs. This is the fourth straight monthly gain and is the largest since September. December’s gain puts the industry at its highest employment level since late 1990. Wholesale only lost jobs twice during the entire year. The total number of jobs added in 1993 were 52,000, while 1992 gained 18,000 and 1991 lost 65,000. This past year turned out to be the best hiring year the industry has seen since 1988. Excluding the jobs lost by the Professional equipment (computers) sector, Wholesale would have gained 50% more than it did, for a total of 77,000. December’s 10,000 job increase was chiefly seen in the Durable goods sector. As was the case in 1993, the employment swings in Durables are usually greater than Nondurables, and are responsible for the majority of the employment trend in Wholesale. |
| RETAIL TRADE — All employment increased by 32,000 seasonally adjusted in December 1993. The largest increases occurred in Automotive dealers and service stations up 13,000, Apparel and accessory stores up 9,000, and Eating and drinking placesup 23,000. The largest declines occurred in Merchandise stores down 13,000 and Misc. Retail establishments down 11,000. Employment increased by 342,000 or 2 percent seasonally adjusted during 1993. Eating and drinking places accounted for 68 percent of the increase and Automotive dealers and service stations accounted for 21 percent. |
| FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE — FIRE, experiencing its fourth consecutive strong month, added 14,000 to payroll in December. The majority of the expansion was in Finance which has been growing in employment since September 1992. |
| SERVICES — Services jobs increased by only 68,000 in December, 34,000 less than in the average month of the preceding twelve-month period. The weakness was not caused by any one or a few industries, but by an accumulation of slightly to moderately weak movements. The greatest negative deviation from average growth was only 8,000, in health services (SIC 80). Amusement and recreation (SIC 79) and membership organizations (SIC 86) were short of their respective average growth by 7,000 jobs each. Eleven industries had below-average movements, and four had above-average changes.
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| GOVERNMENT — Employment in federal, state and local governments increased by 36 thousand in December. The increase was spread among the three divisions. Over the year employment in government has increased by 180. |
| FEDERAL GOVERNMENT — Federal employment was up by nine thousand. The increase in Post Office employment was greater than average, but less than in 1992, when extra holiday hiring occurred to offset the effect of retirements and downsizing. Post Office employment grew by 46 thousand in December 1992 (as compared to a total Federal change of 40 thousand) and by 32 thousand (as compared to a total Federal change of 23 thousand) in December 1993. In addition, some agencies lost employment as their buyout offers were accepted by employees eligible for retirement. Over the year employment has decreased by 63. |
| STATE GOVERNMENT — State government employment increased by eight thousand. State education did not change, so the increase came in State government except education. The increase was similar to those of 1988 and 1983, which also had five weeks between the November and December reference weeks. Unadjusted, the over-the-month change was very similar to all years in the 1983-1993 period except for 1986 and 1987. There was little movement in the industries which are part of State government. Over the year employment has increased by 65. |
| LOCAL GOVERNMENT — Local government grew by 19 thousand. This change showed the impact of the November election adjustment, as the increase was considerably less than those of prior non-election years ranging from 30-49. The factors would normally have expected a large layoff of election workers in December, since this occurred after federal elections in two of the three previous years. Again showing the effect of the election adjustment, employment in General Administration increased by just three thousand, as compared with other non-election year changes of 14 to 23. As in State government, there was little change in the education sector; unadjusted movements in the other industries comprising Local government were negligible. Over the year employment has grown by 178. |
